Bislang galt es in der Astronomie als recht ausgemacht, daß in rund 4 bis 5 Milliarden Jahren die beiden größten Spiralgalaxien der lokalen Gruppe "zusammenstoßen" und am Ende miteinander verschmelzen werden. Der Unsicherheitsfaktor besteht darin, den genauen Vektor der Bewegung von M31, die sich uns mit 110 km/s nähert, über die Distanz von 2,1 Millionen Lichtjahren genau zu bestimmen.
Zitat June 2, 2025
Close encounters of the galactic kind: Simulations suggest Milky Way and Andromeda may not collide after all Scientists from Helsinki, Durham and Toulouse universities used data from NASA's Hubble and the European Space Agency's Gaia space telescopes to simulate how the Milky Way and Andromeda will evolve over the next 10 billion years. The two galaxies are currently heading towards each other at a speed of about 100 kilometers per second.
A collision would be devastating for both galaxies, which would be destroyed, leaving behind a spheroidal pile of stars known as an elliptical galaxy. The team ran 100,000 simulations of both galaxies based on the latest observational data. This included the effect of the Milky Way's most massive satellite, the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), and, importantly, for the first time, including uncertainties in the observables. The study has been published in the journal Nature Astronomy.
They found only a 2% probability that the galaxies will collide in the next five billion years, contrary to the previous belief that a collision—and the demise of the Milky Way—was a certainty within that timeframe. In just over half of the simulated scenarios, the Milky Way and Andromeda experience at least one close encounter, before losing enough orbital energy to eventually collide and merge—but in eight to 10 billion years' time, not five. On that timescale the sun will have already burnt itself out.
In most other cases, the two galaxies pass at such a large distance that they continue to evolve largely unperturbed for a very long time. Although this new research challenges the previously accepted fate of our galaxy, the study authors say that it is very difficult to make a very precise prediction. Dr. Sawala said, "When we tried to start from the same assumptions as previous researchers, we recovered the same results. "We've simply been able to explore a much larger space of possibilities, taking advantage of new data. "While some earlier works had focused on the interaction between the Milky Way, Andromeda, and the Triangulum galaxy, we also include the effect of the LMC. "Although its mass is only around 15% of the Milky Way's, its gravitational pull directed perpendicular to the orbit with Andromeda perturbs the Milky Way's motion enough to significantly reduce the chance of a merger with the Andromeda galaxy. "And while earlier studies only considered the most likely value for each variable, we ran many thousands of simulations, which allowed us to account for all the observational uncertainties."
This new uncertainty about the future of the Milky Way and Andromeda may not last, as the team are already looking ahead to researching further scenarios when even more data become available. The Gaia space telescope will soon deliver more precise measurements of some of the most crucial variables within the galaxies, including the transverse motion of Andromeda, which is difficult to measure directly.
Zitat (Published: 02 June 2025) "No certainty of a Milky Way–Andromeda collision," Till Sawala, Jehanne Delhomelle, Alis J. Deason, Carlos S. Frenk, Jenni Häkkinen, Peter H. Johansson, Atte Keitaanranta, Alexander Rawlings & Ruby Wright (Nature Astronomy (2025))
Abstract It is commonly believed that our own Milky Way is on a collision course with the neighbouring Andromeda galaxy. As a result of their merger, predicted in around 5 billion years, the two large spiral galaxies that define the present Local Group would form a new elliptical galaxy. Here we consider the latest and most accurate observations by the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes, along with recent consensus mass estimates, to derive possible future scenarios and identify the main sources of uncertainty in the evolution of the Local Group over the next 10 billion years. We found that the next most massive Local Group member galaxies—namely, M33 and the Large Magellanic Cloud—distinctly and radically affect the Milky Way–Andromeda orbit. Although including M33 increases the merger probability, the orbit of the Large Magellanic Cloud runs perpendicular to the Milky Way–Andromeda orbit and makes their merger less probable. In the full system, we found that uncertainties in the present positions, motions and masses of all galaxies leave room for drastically different outcomes and a probability of close to 50% that there will be no Milky Way–Andromeda merger during the next 10 billion years. Based on the best available data, the fate of our Galaxy is still completely open.
The Local Group (LG) contains two large spiral galaxies, our own Milky Way (MW) and the Andromeda galaxy (M31), along with approximately 100 known smaller galaxies1. In addition, it probably hosts other galaxies yet to be discovered2, and, according to the standard cosmological model, a vast number of completely dark substructures3. The negative radial velocity of M31 towards the MW has been known for over a century 4, even before its distance was first accurately measured 5. However, although indirect methods have since been used to constrain the transverse components of M31’s velocity vector 6,7,8, direct measurements of the minute proper motions have been achieved only much more recently with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) 9. The first numerical studies 10 of a possible MW-M31 merger predate even the early estimates of the transverse velocity. The finding that the MW-M31 motion is close to radial immediately led to the prediction of a probable future collision and merger 11,12,13. This scenario has since become the prevalent narrative 14,15 and textbook knowledge 16,17.
Predicting the future of the LG The MW and M31 both contain remnants of past mergers and interactions with other galaxies18,19,20,21. Predicting future mergers requires knowledge about the present coordinates, velocities and masses of the systems partaking in the interaction. In addition to the gravitational force between galaxies, dynamical friction is the dominant process in the lead-up to galactic mergers, as it transfers orbital kinetic energy to internal energy of the objects involved and, consequently, leads to the decay of galactic orbits.
Noten 4 + 5 beziehen sich auf die erste Distanzbestimmung durch Edwin Hubble aufgrund des ersten Nachweises eines Cepheiden in M31 (fotografiert mit dem 100-Zoll Hooker-Teleskop auf dem Mount Wilson 1923, veröffentlicht am 10. Februar 1925 - vor 100 Jahren! - in der "New York Times". Daraus ergab sich eine Entfernung von etwas weniger als 1 Million Lichtjahren, und der Nachweis, daß es sich bei den "Inseluniversen", den Spiralnebeln, eben um Galaxien entsprechend der Milchstraße handelte. Bis dahin war die Möglichkeit vertreten worden, daß die Milchstraße das gesamte Universum umfaßte und die Nebel Gebilde unbekannter Art darin darstellten; erst das Hooker-Teleskop machte es möglich, einzelne Sterne darin nachzuweisen. Bei Cepheiden handelt es sich um variable Sterne, deren Periode in linearer Weise mit ihrer absoluten Leuchtkraft verknüpft ist - das macht es möglich, sie als "Standardkerzen" zu verwenden. 1952 gelang der Nachweis, daß es ZWEI Klassen von Cepheiden gibt: in den inneren und äußeren Bereichen der Galaxien; bei denen der zweiten Klasse liegt die Leuchtkraft um das 4-fache höher: der Stern, den Hubble am 5. Oktober 1923 auf der photographischen Platte mit "VAR!" gekennzeichnet hatte, gehört zu Klasse 2.
Auch bei einer direkten "Kollision" der beiden Galaxien bestünde keine Gefahr von Sternkollisionen oder der üblichen Szenarien, die in der SF seit H. G. Wells' "The Star" von 1897 Klassiker des Genres sind (der nahe Vorbeizug eines massereichen Sterns führt entweder zur Überhitzung des Erde oder kegelt die Planeten des Sonnensystems in die interplanetare Leere) - die durchschnittliche Entfernung zwischen den Sternen würde sich in diesem Fall von 5 Lichtjahre auf 2-3 reduzieren. Das Risiko bestünde in dem, was man in zahlreichen anderen Fällen als Folge von Nahbegegnungen zwischen Galaxien beobachten kann (M82, NGC 1569, 1614, 1705, 2146, 6946 sind solche typischen "Starburst"-Galaxien): durch den Schwerkrafteinfluß kommt es in den Gasregionen zu massiven Sternentstehungen, mit entsprechend massereichen Sternen von Dutzenden bis tausenden von Sonnenmassen, die nach wenigen Jahrmillionen als Supernovae explodieren (deshalb "Starburst") und den Aufenthalt im Umkreis von einigen hundert Lichtjahren nicht angeraten sein lassen.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Der Kleine Archivar, der am liebsten auf den obersten Regalen stöbert, wo der Staub am dicksten liegt, muß sich auch mal wieder zu Wort melden, da ich oben Wells' Kurzgeschichte "The Star" erwähnt habe.
"The Star" ist in den Zeitschrift "The Graphic" in der Weihnachtsausgabe 1897 erschienen; Wells benutzt hier ein Zwei-Schritt-Verfahren, um seine astronomische Apokalypse zu starten: bei ihm schlägt "ein Asteroid" auf den Neptun ein und erzeugt einen sternähnlichen neuen Himmelskörper, den der Impakt aus der Bahn trägt & der der Erde zu nahe kommt.
Das "eigentliche" Szenario (ein Stern dringt ins Sonnensystem ein & sorgt für globale Überhitzung in XL) findet sich bei Frank Lillie Pollock, "Finis" (The Argosy, Juni 1906) In Simon Newcombs "The End of the World" (McClure's Magazine, Mai 1903) trifft ein "schwarzer Körper" die Sonne und sorgt damit für die Katastrophe. Bei Carl Grunert, "Das Ende der Erde?" (in der Sammlung "Der Marsspion," 1908) nähert ein "riesiges, planetenähnliches Objekt" und droht mit der Erde zu kollidieren. Es kommt zu einem massiven Ausbruch sämtlicher Vulkane der Erde, der so erzeugte Rückstoß reicht aus, um die Erdbahn geringfügig zu ändern und eine Kollision um Haaresbreite abzuwenden (daß Grunert, der sich reichlich bei Wells bedient hat, hier in Sachen Rückstoßprinzip etwas Entscheidendes übersehen hat, verbuche ich mal unter "Verlegenheitslösung").
Bei Edmond Hamiltons "The Star-Stealers" (Weird Tales, Februar 1929) wird ein Stern als Irrläufer von Aliens ins Sonnensystem gelenkt, um den Erdlingen heimzuleuchten.
Seltsamerweise kommt es 1932 im Genre zu einer Häufung dieses Szenarios:
In Richard Vaughans "The Woman from Space" (Wonder Stories Quarterly, Frühjahr 1932) erweist sich der Planet, der sich dem Innenbereich des Sonnensystems nähert und die Erde zu bedrohen scheint, als voreiliger Schluß: Auf dem Planeten herrscht ein utopisches Matriarchat & weil es den Damen im Asteroidengürtel zu schattig geworden ist, haben sie per Supertechnik ihre Heimat etwas näher an die Sonne bugsiert. Wieso den hiesigen Astronomen ein erdgroßer Körper im Asteroidengürtel entgangen ist, laß ich mal unabgemacht. Ich verweise nur auf ein erstaunlich ähnliches Szenario in der 5. Folge der "Raumpatrioulle Orion" - "Der Kampf um die Sonne". Dort herrscht auf einem etwas weiter abgelegenen erdähnlichen Planeten ebenfalls ein Matriarchat, und weil es ihnen zu schattig geworden ist, haben die Damen beschlossen, die Sonne etwas wärmer zu drehen, was bei uns für den wärmsten Februar seit 125.000 Jahren sorgt. In Donald Wandreis "Raiders of the Universes" (Astounding Stories, September 1932) sieht der Protagonist, seines Zeichens Astronom, reihenweise neue Sterne auftauchen, jeder näher als der vorhergehende. Als der letzte davon im Sonnensystem auftaucht, erweist es sich als planetengroßes Raumschiff, dessen Insassen aus einem "anderen Universum" entstammen, das älter als das unsere ist, dessen Energiequellen versiegt sind und die seitdem plündernd durch Nachbar-Kontinuen ziehen. Edwin Balmer und Philip Wylies Roman "When Worlds Collide"/Welten im Zusammenstoß, als Buch 1933 bei der Frederick A. Stokes Company verlegt, ist als Vorabdruck von September 1932 bis Februar 1933 in der Zeitschrift "Blue Book" erschienen.
Ob die alle voneinander abgepinnt haben oder "ob das in der Luft lag", lasse ich einmal offen. Es gab so etwa ab 1910 bis Ende der zwanziger Jahre immer wieder solche kurzen, schlicht bebilderten Revuen in den Illustrierten zum Thema "5 bis 6 Arten, wie das Ende der Welt aussehen könnte" (die Wiederkehr des Halley'schen Kometen 1910 könnte hier als Anlaß gedient haben), und solche stellaren Visiten kamen, neben neuer Eiszeit, Ressourcenerschöpfung, Superwaffen nebst Todesstrahlen und Pestilenz regelmäßig vor.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Fußnote zur Fußnote. Stichwort Simon Newcomb. Das war ja nicht nur der Astronom, der zwischen 1878 und 1880 die ersten genauen Bestimmungen der Lichtgeschwindigkeit durchgeführt hat (Albert Abrahamson Michelson hat ihm dabei assistiert - und Michelsons Weiterführung des Experiments mit Morley hat ein Jahr später zur Entdeckung der Invarianz der Lichtgeschwindigkeit geführt und damit zur Aufgabe der Hypothese des Lichtäthers als Trägermedium), sondern auch, daß er im gleichen Jahr, in dem er seine Story über den Weltuntergang veröffentlicht hat, recht apodiktisch das Problem des mechanischen Flugs für unlösbar erklärt hat.
Zitat In the October 22, 1903, issue of The Independent, Newcomb made the well-known remark that "May not our mechanicians ... be ultimately forced to admit that aerial flight is one of the great class of problems with which man can never cope, and give up all attempts to grapple with it?",[21][22] He suggested that even if a man flew, he could not stop. "Once he slackens his speed, down he begins to fall. Once he stops, he falls as a dead mass." Newcomb had no concept of an airfoil. His "aeroplane" was an inclined "thin flat board". He therefore concluded that it could never carry the weight of a man.
Newcombs Voraussage hat bekanntlich exakt 56 Tage gehalten.
PS.
Zitat Translations of science fiction works were already common in this early modern period; a novel titled The End of the World,written in 1903 by the influential American-Canadian astronomer Simon Newcomb, was translated into Japanese and published as Ankokusei (The Dark Planet) in 1905. The novel was inspired by the latest astronomical science, and had a considerable impact on Japanese intellectuals. The story takes place ten thousand years in the future, when the cultures of humankind are flourishing with advanced science and technologies. One day, a scientist discovers a mysterious dark planet approaching our solar system at incredible speed. He calculates that this dark planet will crash into our Sun and that the crash will cause the Sun to expand one thousand times, heating up the Earth and causing the extinction of all living things. The scientist, aiming to be a sort of second Noah, builds an underground shelter stocked with food and seeds. Following the crash and the subsequent destruction, the few people who had taken refuge in the shelter return to the surface to build a new society. However, they discover that the dark planet has turned the Sun into a nebula (Nagayama 1999: 168–179)
"Trajectory of Modern Japanese Science Fiction," Motoko Tanaka, 玉川大学リベラルアーツ学部研究紀要, 第 12 号（2019 年 3 月）
Nagayama, Yasuo. “Nijusseiki no owarikata” (How to End the Twentieth Century). Eureka: Poetry and Criticism 31, 2 (February 1999):168–179.
Zitat To find a time of real excitement it was necessary to go back 3,000 years, when messages had first been successfully interchanged with the inhabitants of Mars. To send a signal which they could see required a square mile of concentrated light as bright as the sun, and experiments extending through thousands of years had been necessary before this result could be brought about by any manageable apparatus. Signals from the plains of Siberia had been made nightly during two or three oppositions of the planet, without any answer being received. Then the world was electrified by hearing that return signals could be seen flashing in such a way that no doubt could exist about them. Their interpretation required more study than was ever expended by our archeologists on a Moabite inscription. When success was at last reached, it became evident by a careful comparison of the records that the people of Mars were more successful watchers of the stars than we were ourselves. It was found that a row of four lights diminishing in intensity from one end to the other, and pointing in one direction, meant that a new star was showing itself in that direction. Some object of this sort had been seen every two or three years from the earliest historical times, but in recent times a star had often been signaled from Mars before even the sensitive photographic plates and keen eyes of our Himalayan astronomers had discerned it.
Ach. Newcomb:
Zitat The Himalayan astronomers were nearly buried under telegrams asking these and other questions without numbers. They could only reply that they had not yet succeeded in finding the object, but that the constellation to which the signal pointed was the head of the Dragon.
There was no likelihood that the object was yet visible, even through powerful telescopes, but this did not prevent the family telescope being brought out in every dwelling in the world, in order to scour the heavens for the new star.
In diesem Fall ist eindeutig das Sternbild Drache gemeint, das sich oberhalb des Großen Bären über den halben Nordhimmel zieht. aber in der Astronomie versteht man unter dem Kopf bzw. dem Schwanz des Drachen (caput bzw. cauda serpentis) auch die beiden Punkte, an denen die Mondbahn die Ekliptik schneidet. Und an jedem zweiten Ort taucht beim zweiten Astronomen, der apokalyptische SF-Erzählungen mit Astronomie-Hintergrund veröffentlicht hat, nämlich Robert S. Richardson (1902-1981), in der Erzählung "Under the Dragon's Tail" (Analog Science Fiction/Science Fact, Dezember 1966, S. 145-155), ein Asteroid auf, dessen Einschlag einen Schlußstrich unter die Weltgeschichte zieht (oder zumindest beträchtlichen Flurschaden hinterläßt).
Zitat What surprised Gil was that no observations and hence no corrections to the orbit had been made since 1960. Closest approach always occurred at the descending node, which Iracus was scheduled to reach next Saturday, June 15th. (S. 147)
"Yes, it's definite now," Gil told him, throwing one leg over the corner of the desk. "What's the situation?" "Icarus is going to hit us." "Would you mind repeating -" "Its a hit." "A hit!" "Icarus will hit the Earth on Friday, June 14th, at ten p.m., Pacific Daylight Time." … "I see," Judson said slowly. "Well ... where is Icarus scheduled to land?" "Contact will occur in the Hollywood-Beverly Hills area." "That's pretty close to home." "We're right on target," Gil said happily. (S. 155)
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
In Sachen 1566 Icarus haben wir diesmal Glück. Der Erdbahnkreuzer befindet sich zurzeit in einer Entfernung von 152 Millionen km, im Sternbild Stier, gut einen halben Bogengrad südwestlich von Elnath, β Tauri, mit einer Helligkeit der 16. Größenklasse. Am 13. Juni befindet er sich 106,6 Mio. km entfernt, bei der größten Annäherung am 5. Juli 65,6. Die größte Annäherung in den nächsten 100 Jahren findet am 14. Juni 2090 statt, wenn er uns in 5,3 Millionen km Abstand passiert. Icarus hat einen Durchmesser von 1,4 Kilometern; die Größe des Chixculub-Impaktors, der vor 65 Millionen Jahren die Saurier und die Trilobiten abgeräumt hat, wird auf zwischen 10 und 80 km geschätzt (je nachdem, welche Einschlagsgeschwindigkeit zugrunde gelegt wird).
Wie man in Latham/Richardsons Erzählung auf S. 147 sehen kann, spielt die Geschichte im Juni 1968; zwischen 1900 und 2099 fand die größte Annäherung am Samstag, den 15. Juni 1968 statt, mit einer Entfernung von 6,36 Millionen km.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Zitat "Finis" is the story of a new star that is discovered which turns out to be a new, hotter sun. It is a short, but hard hitting story which shows a man and woman who stay up the night to watch the expected new star arise. Though published in 1906, it is set in the future of the mid 20th century.
Synopsis The story starts with two men and two women at an observatory in New York City. They are awaiting the appearance of a new star that has been predicted by top scientists that will rival the moon in intensity. The entire world is excited about this new heavenly body and people stay up the night waiting. It is February and very cold but around midnight the temperature starts to climb and the snow melts. Then a very bright moon rises, which is brighter than normal because it is reflecting the new star's light. Then the sky turns ablaze with color as the new sun is seen and the blast of heat is almost immediate. One of the women screams as a nearby flag catches fire. The city starts to go up in smoke and those directly in the heat quickly die. One of the men in the observatory flees with his wife and it is assumed that they die outside. The remaining man and woman quickly try to get to the cellar as the building they are in starts to collapse. The extreme heat has evaporated the sea water which now comes back as a torrential rain. The city starts to flood and a thick cloud of steam fills the air. The couple makes it down to the cellar and the heat is almost unbearable as they just lie on the floor going in and out of consciousness. Finally the rain stops and the heat starts to go up again but then the new sun goes down and darkness brings some coolness to them. They talk about their future and realize that when the new sun comes up the next morning, the heat will kill them and everyone left. They realize that they will be dead soon and have a last kiss. The sun then comes up and the world is burnt to a crisp.
In Larry Nivens Erzählung "Inconstant Moon" von 1971 kündigt sich für den Ich-Erzähler, der als SF-Autor mit Dingen, die am Himmel geschehen, auskennt, die letzte Nacht der Welt an, als ihm eine Stunde nach Sonnenuntergang auffällt, daß er beim Mondlicht die Zeitung lesen kann. Der einzige Schluß ist, daß die Sonne, auf der anderen Seite der Erde, einen ungeahnten Strahlungsausbruch zeigt, der mit Tagesanbruch auch die amerikanische Westküste verschmoren wird. Man merkt es der Geschichte deutlich an, daß sie aus der Zeit vor den Internetzen entstanden ist, von denen man neuerdings soviel hört.
Und am Anfang von Pollocks "Finis" findet sich dies:
Zitat Some error had been made in the calculations, though, as Eastwood said, astronomers had been figuring on them for twenty-five years.
It was, in fact, nearly forty years since Professor Adolphe Bernier first announced his theory of a limited universe at the International Congress of Sciences in Paris, where it was counted as little more than a masterpiece of imagination.
Professor Bernier did not believe that the universe was infinite. Somewhere, he argued, the universe must have a centre, which is the pivot for its revolution.
The moon revolves around the earth, the planetary system revolves about the sun, the solar system revolves about one of the fixed stars, and this whole system in its turn undoubtedly revolve around some more distant point. But this sort of progression must definitely stop somewhere.
Somewhere there must be a central sun, a vast incandescent body which does not move at all. And as a sun is always larger and hotter than its satellites, therefore the body at the centre of the universe must be of an immensity and temperature beyond anything known or imagined.
It was objected that this hypothetical body should then be large enough to be visible from the earth, and Professor Bernier replied that some day it undoubtedly would be visible. Its light had simply not yet had time to reach the earth.
The passage of light from the nearest of the fixed stars is a matter of three years, and there must be many stars so distant that their rays have not yet reached us. The great central sun must be so inconceivably remote that perhaps hundreds, perhaps thousands of years would elapse before its light should burst upon the solar system.
All this was contemptuously classed as "newspaper science" till the extraordinary mathematical revival a little after the middle of the twentieth century afforded the means of verifying it.
Following the new theorems discovered by Professor Burnside, of Princeton, and elaborated by Dr Taneka, of Tokyo, astronomers succeeded in calculating the arc of the sun's movements through space, and its ratio to the orbit of its satellites. With this as a basis, it was possible to follow the widening circles, the consecutive systems of the heavenly bodies and their rotations.
The theory of Professor Bernier was justified. It was demonstrated that there really was a gigantic mass of incandescent matter, which, whether the central point of the universe or not, appeared to be without motion.
The weight and distance of this new sun were approximately calculated, and, the speed of light being known, it was an easy matter to reckon when its rays would reach the earth.
It was then estimated that the approaching rays would arrive at the earth in twenty-six years, and that was twenty-six years ago. Three weeks had passed since the date when the new heavenly body was expected to become visible, and it had not yet appeared.
Die Annahme einer "Zentralsonne" für die Milchstraße stammt freilich nicht von Professor Bernier, sondern ist in Ansätzen von Thomas Wright 1750 vorgeschlagen worden und ausformuliert worden von Johann Heinrich Mädler in "Die Centralsonne," 1846, der die Plejaden für dieses Zentralgestirn hielt.
The Central Sun and Theory of the Stellar Universe One of a set of 12 hand-tinted astronomical prints with an explanatory card. The publisher is identified on each print as J. Reynolds or James Reynolds of the Strand, London. These cards were first issued by Reynolds in 1846, although he and other publishers continued to produce them throughout the second half of the 19th century. They responded to a perceived market for popular science products and were intended for informal learning within the home. They could be bought in sets or singly and, at a price of 1 shilling, were affordable to middle class audiences.
Zitat "Professor Madler, a Russian astronomer, who has for some years past devoted his attention to this subject, has lately given to the world the result of his researches. he has arrived at the conclusion, that the Pleiades form the central group of our whole astral or sidereal System, including the Milky Way, and all the brighter Stars; but exclusive of the more distant nebulase, and that Alcyone, or Eta Tauri, is the Star of this group which appears the most probable to be the central Sun. This Group is situated in the midst of a region of Stars, of extraordinary thickness and brilliancy, round which he believes there is a zone proportionally poor in stars, then a broad ring-formed layer, followed by an interval, comparatively devoid of stars, and then another starry shoal, and, probably, several more alternations of a similar kind - the outermost circle forming the Milky Way. It is difficult to form any adequate idea of the stupendous magnitude of this system, throughout which the great law of gravitation appears to prevail. Light, which shoots through space at the rate of 192,000 miles in one second of time, takes 537 years in travelling to us from the Cental Sun, whose mass is 117,400,000 times greater than that of our luminary; which latter, with ist attendant system or worlds, requires a period of 18,200,000 years for its revolution round the central Star.
Es liegt eine hübsche Ironie darin, daß die Forschung tatsächlich die Existenz eines solchen Zentralkörpers nachgewiesen hat - freilich keines Sterns, sondern eines schwarzen Lochs, Sgr A*, mit einer Masse von 4,3 Millionen Sonnenmassen (im Fall der Andromedagalaxie von 100 Milionen Sonnenmassen) und einer Entfernung von 27.000 Lichtjahren.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Die Mädlersche Zentralsonne hat übrigens einen zentralen (sic) Auftritt in einem weiteren Text der frühen phantastischen Literatur, erschienen im gleichen Jahr wie Carl Grunerts "Das Ende der Erde?", 1908.
In William Hope Hodgsons "The House on the Borderland" geht es um die Aufzeichnungen eines Einzelgängers, der im abgelegendsten Westen Irlands mit seiner Schwester, die ihm den Haushalt führt, in einem turmähnlichen finsteren Gebäude in der Wildnis haust, und der außer Hausen keiner Tätigkeit nachgeht. Ihn suchen Visionen heim, in denen ein riesiges Pendant des Hauses figuriert, das sich auf einem anderen Planeten oder einer anderen Dimension befindet und von sinistren dämonischen Gestalten in Schweineform belagert wird. (Diese Szenerie hat Jean Ray 1 zu 1 für seinen Roman "Malpertuis" von 1943 übernommen). Ganz unweigerlich tauchen die Schweinswesen auf in der Realität des Erzählers auf, aus einem "bodenlosen Loch," das sich im untersten Keller findet wie der Höllenschlund unter Sunnydale bei "Buffy" & belagern die Hütte. So weit eine Zweitauflage von Poes "Untergang des Hauses Usher," einschließlich Untergang im abgrundlosen Weiher am Ende, nur mit externen statt inneren Dämonen und ohne Besucher von außen. Nach etwa zwei Dritteln des Textes kippt die Szenerie in eine Visions- oder Traumsequenz, bei der jetzt glasklar Wells' "Zeitmaschine" die Folie bildet: der Erzähler löst sich aus dem Körper, steht als reines Geistwesen neben sich, die Zeit beginnnt, sich zu beschleunigen; sein Leichnam und der seines Hundes beginnen zu verfallen, die Sonne beginnt rasend über dne Himmel zu ziehen. Die Jahrhunderte vergehen; das Haus verfällt, am Ende stürzen die inneren Planeten in die Sonne (das hat der Autor von der letzten Etappe bei Wells mit der Ankunft in 30 Millionen Jahren übernommen), eine gewaltige grüne Sonne nähert sich.
Zitat Presently, I turned from the window, and glanced 'round the room. It seemed different — strangely, utterly different. Then, I knew what it was that made it appear so strange. It was bare: there was not a piece of furniture in the room; not even a solitary fitting of any sort. Gradually, my amazement went, as I remembered, that this was but the inevitable end of that process of decay, which I had witnessed commencing, before my sleep. Thousands of years! Millions of years!
Over the floor was spread a deep layer of dust, that reached half way up to the window-seat. It had grown immeasurably, whilst I slept; and represented the dust of untold ages. Undoubtedly, atoms of the old, decayed furniture helped to swell its bulk; and, somewhere among it all, mouldered the long-ago-dead Pepper.
All at once, it occurred to me, that I had no recollection of wading knee-deep through all that dust, after I awoke. True, an incredible age of years had passed, since I approached the window; but that was evidently as nothing, compared with the countless spaces of time that, I conceived, had vanished whilst I was sleeping. I remembered now, that I had fallen asleep, sitting in my old chair. Had it gone ...? I glanced toward where it had stood. Of course, there was no chair to be seen. I could not satisfy myself, whether it had disappeared, after my waking, or before. If it had mouldered under me, surely, I should have been waked by the collapse. Then I remembered that the thick dust, which covered the floor, would have been sufficient to soften my fall; so that it was quite possible, I had slept upon the dust for a million years or more. ... The world, so much of it as I could see, had assumed a dreadful shade of gloom, as though, in very deed, the last day of the worlds approached.
The sun was dying; of that there could be little doubt; and still the earth whirled onward, through space and all the aeons. At this time, I remember, an extraordinary sense of bewilderment took me. I found myself, later, wandering, mentally, amid an odd chaos of fragmentary modern theories and the old Biblical story of the world's ending.
Then, for the first time, there flashed across me, the memory that the sun, with its system of planets, was, and had been, traveling through space at an incredible speed. Abruptly, the question rose — Where? For a very great time, I pondered this matter; but, finally, with a certain sense of the futility of my puzzlings, I let my thoughts wander to other things. I grew to wondering, how much longer the house would stand. Also, I queried, to myself, whether I should be doomed to stay, bodiless, upon the earth, through the dark-time that I knew was coming.
Year after year flashed into the past, and the days and nights spread into minutes. The sun had ceased to have the appearance of a tail; and now rose and set—a tremendous globe of a glowing copper-bronze hue; in parts ringed with blood-red bands; in others, with the dusky ones, that I have already mentioned. These circles — both red and black — were of varying thicknesses. For a time, I was at a loss to account for their presence. Then it occurred to me, that it was scarcely likely that the sun would cool evenly all over; and that these markings were due, probably, to differences in temperature of the various areas; the red representing those parts where the heat was still fervent, and the black those portions which were already comparatively cool. ... All at once, during one of these periods of life, a sudden flame cut across the night — a quick glare that lit up the dead earth, shortly; giving me a glimpse of its flat lonesomeness. The light appeared to come from the sun—shooting out from somewhere near its center, diagonally. A moment, I gazed, startled. Then the leaping flame sank, and the gloom fell again. But now it was not so dark; and the sun was belted by a thin line of vivid, white light. I stared, intently. Had a volcano broken out on the sun? Yet, I negatived the thought, as soon as formed. I felt that the light had been far too intensely white, and large, for such a cause.
Another idea there was, that suggested itself to me. It was, that one of the inner planets had fallen into the sun—becoming incandescent, under that impact. This theory appealed to me, as being more plausible, and accounting more satisfactorily for the extraordinary size and brilliance of the blaze, that had lit up the dead world, so unexpectedly. ... Several times, the comfortless sound of some great piece of masonry falling, disturbed my meditations; and, once, it seemed I could hear whispering in the room, behind me. Yet it was utterly useless to try to see anything. Such blackness, as existed, scarcely can be conceived. It was palpable, and hideously brutal to the sense; as though something dead, pressed up against me—something soft, and icily cold.
Under all this, there grew up within my mind, a great and overwhelming distress of uneasiness, that left me, but to drop me into an uncomfortable brooding. I felt that I must fight against it; and, presently, hoping to distract my thoughts, I turned to the window, and looked up toward the North, in search of the nebulous whiteness, which, still, I believed to be the far and misty glowing of the universe we had left. Even as I raised my eyes, I was thrilled with a feeling of wonder; for, now, the hazy light had resolved into a single, great star, of vivid green.
As I stared, astonished, the thought flashed into my mind; that the earth must be traveling toward the star; not away, as I had imagined. Next, that it could not be the universe the earth had left; but, possibly, an outlying star, belonging to some vast star-cluster, hidden in the enormous depths of space ... Gradually, as the earth traveled forward, the star fell still more to the right; until, at last, it shone on the back of the house, sending a flood of broken rays, in through the skeletonlike walls. Glancing upward, I saw that much of the ceiling had vanished, enabling me to see that the upper storeys were even more decayed. The roof had, evidently, gone entirely; and I could see the green effulgence of the Starlight shining in, slantingly.
What happened to the dead sun, I did not see; but I have no reason — in the light of that which I saw afterward — to disbelieve that it fell into the strange fire of the Green Sun, and so perished. ... And then, suddenly, an extraordinary question rose in my mind, whether this stupendous globe of green fire might not be the vast Central Sun — the great sun, 'round which our universe and countless others revolve. I felt confused. I thought of the probable end of the dead sun, and another suggestion came, dumbly — Do the dead stars make the Green Sun their grave? The idea appealed to me with no sense of grotesqueness; but rather as something both possible and probable.
My sight dwelt upon the Green Sun—eclipsed. What had eclipsed it? Was there a vast, dead star circling it? Was the Central Sun — as I had come to regard it — a double star? The thought had come, almost unbidden; yet why should it not be so?
In der Umlaufbahn oder Dimension der grünen Sonne begegnet der verspensterte Erzähler auch dem Phantom seiner verflossenen Großen Liebe (und hier wird Hodgson fast so kitschig wie in den völlig vermurksten Eingangskapiteln von "The Night Land"):
Zitat All at once, I became aware that a sound broke the inconceivable stillness. It was like the murmur of a great sea at calm—a sea breathing in its sleep. Gradually, the mist that obscured my sight, began to thin away; and so, in time, my vision dwelt once again upon the silent surface of the Sea of Sleep.
For a little, I gazed, and could scarcely believe I saw aright. I glanced 'round. There was the great globe of pale fire, swimming, as I had seen it before, a short distance above the dim horizon. To my left, far across the sea, I discovered, presently, a faint line, as of thin haze, which I guessed to be the shore, where my Love and I had met, during those wonderful periods of soul-wandering, that had been granted to me in the old earth days.
Another, a troubled, memory came to me — of the Formless Thing that had haunted the shores of the Sea of Sleep. The guardian of that silent, echoless place. These, and other, details, I remembered, and knew, without doubt that I was looking out upon that same sea. With the assurance, I was filled with an overwhelming feeling of surprise, and joy, and shaken expectancy, conceiving it possible that I was about to see my Love, again. Intently, I gazed around; but could catch no sight of her. At that, for a little, I felt hopeless. Fervently, I prayed, and ever peered, anxiously.... How still was the sea!
Thou wert indeed gracious—it was She! She looked up into my eyes, with an eager longing, and I looked down to her, with all my soul. I should like to have held her; but the glorious purity of her face, kept me afar. Then, out of the winding mist, she put her dear arms. Her whisper came to me, soft as the rustle of a passing cloud. 'Dearest!' she said. That was all; but I had heard, and, in a moment I held her to me—as I prayed—forever.
Aber: aus dieser Passage wird klar, daß Hodgson hier eben nicht nur Wells als Quelle hat, sondern die Vision auf einer älteren Quelle fußt - nämlich der dritten "Hymne an die Nacht" von Novalis.
Zitat Schlummer des Himmels kamst über mich – die Gegend hob sich sacht empor; über der Gegend schwebte mein entbundner, neugeborner Geist. Zur Staubwolke wurde der Hügel – durch die Wolke sah ich die verklärten Züge der Geliebten. In ihren Augen ruhte die Ewigkeit – ich faßte ihre Hände, und die Thränen wurden ein funkelndes, unzerreißliches Band. Jahrtausende zogen abwärts in die Ferne, wie Ungewitter. An Ihrem Halse weint ich dem neuen Leben entzückende Thränen. – Es war der erste, einzige Traum – und erst seitdem fühl ich ewigen, unwandelbaren Glauben an den Himmel der Nacht und sein Licht, die Geliebte.
Jetzt stellt sich für den literarischen Puzzlespieler nur noch die Frage: konnte Hodgson, 1877 geboren und 1918 an der Westfront gefallen, überhaupt die "Hymnen an die Nacht" kennen? Die älteste gängige englische Nachdichtung, die überall aufploppt, ist die Übertragung von George MacDonald (mit "Phantastes" und "The Princess and the Goblin" ebenfalls einer der Klassiker der Phantastik) aus dem Jahr 1897. Die "Hymnen" sind noch zu Hardenbergs Lebzeiten in pietistischen Kreisen vertong und als Lieder im Gottesdienst verwendet worden - ohne Angabe des Verfassers. Hodgsons Vater war anglikanischer Geistlicher, von der strengen Sorte ("an ascetic, pallid and sternly religious man," schreibt R. Alain Everts in seiner biographischen Skizze "William Hope Hodgson: Master of Phantasy" [1974]); daß sein Sohn mit 15 als Schiffsjunge angeheuert hat, darf als Flucht vor der väterlichen Tyrannei gewertet werden. Sein Verhältnis zur Mutter war hingegen sehr eng. Und diese Mutter, Lizzie Sarah Brown (geb. 1852, gest. 1933 in Wales), hat ihr letztes Schuljahr an einer belgischen Privatschule verbracht und während dieser Zeit im Haushalt einer pietistischen Ehepaars gewohnt.
PS.
"Bilden Sie mal einen Satz mit 'mühsam', 'ernährt sich', und 'Eichhörnchen."
Aus Thomas Carlyles Aufsatz "Novalis," zuerst erschienen in der "Foreign Review," Nr. 7 vom Juli 1829, hier zitiert nach The Works of Thomas Carlyle, Critical and Miscellaneous Essays, Collected and Republished, Bd. 14 (New York: Peter Fenelon, 1897 - "First Time 1839; Final, 1869"), S. 489-545, hier S. 534-535:
Zitat "Once when I was shedding bitter tears, when dissolved in pain my Hope had melted away, and I stood solitary by the grave that in its dark narrow space concealed the Form of my life; solitary as no other had been; chased by unutterable anguish; powerless; one thought and that of misery; - here now as I looked round for help; forward could not go, nor backward, but clung to a transient extinguished Life with unutterable longing; - lo, from the azure distance, down from the heights of my old Blessedness, came a chill breath of Dusk, and suddenly the band of Birth, the fetter of Life was snapped asunder. Vanishes the Glory of Earth, and with it my Lamenting; rushes together the infinite Sadness into a new unfathomable World; thou Night's-inspiration, Slumber of Heavens, camest over me; the scene rose gently aloft; over the scene hovered my enfranchised new-born spirit; to a cloud of dust that grave changed itself; through the cloud I beheld the transfigured features of my Beloved. In her eyes lay Eternity; I clasped her hand, and my tears became a glittering indissoluble chain. Centuries of Ages moved away into the distance, like thunder-clouds. On her neck I wept, for this new life, enraptured tears. - It was my first, only Dream; and ever since I do feel this changeless everlasting faith in the Heaven of Night, and its Sun my Beloved."
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Zitat The Andromeda–Milky Way collision is a galactic collision predicted to occur in about 4.5 billion years between the two largest galaxies in the Local Group—the Milky Way (which contains the Solar System and Earth) and the Andromeda Galaxy.[1][2][3][4][5]
The stars involved are sufficiently spaced that it is improbable that any of them will individually collide,[6] though some stars will be ejected
Certainty This section needs to be updated. The reason given is: The "certainty" that was claimed in 2012 is cast into question by recently published studies. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (June 2025)
Until 2012, it was not known whether the possible collision was definitely going to happen or not.[9] Researchers then used the Hubble Space Telescope to measure the positions of stars in Andromeda in 2002 and 2010, relative to hundreds of distant background galaxies. By averaging over thousands of stars, they were able to obtain the average proper motion with sub-pixel accuracy. The conclusion was that Andromeda is moving southeast in the sky at less than 0.1 milliarc-seconds per year, corresponding to a speed relative to the Sun of less than 200 km/s towards the south and towards the east. Taking also into account the Sun's motion, Andromeda's tangential or sideways velocity with respect to the Milky Way was found to be much smaller than the speed of approach (consistent with zero given the uncertainty) and therefore it will eventually merge with the Milky Way in around five billion years.[1][2][10]
In 2025, Till Sawala and colleagues found that, when the gravitational pull from the Large Magellanic Cloud is taken into account (something that is only possible with data from the Gaia (spacecraft) and Hubble space telescopes not available in 2012), the chance for a collision is much lower. There is a probability of about 50% for no collision during the next 10 billion years.[12][13]
Stellar collisions
While the Andromeda Galaxy contains about 1 trillion (10^12) stars and the Milky Way about 300 billion (3×10^11), the chance of even two stars colliding is negligible because of the huge distances between the stars. For example, the nearest star to the Earth after the Sun is Proxima Centauri, about 4.2 light-years (4.0×10^13 km; 2.5×10^13 mi) or 30 million (3×10^7) solar diameters away.
To visualize that scale, if the Sun were a ping-pong ball, Proxima Centauri would be a pea about 1,100 km (680 mi) away, and the Milky Way would be about 30 million km (19 million mi) wide. Although stars are more common near the centers of each galaxy, the average distance between stars is still 160 billion (1.6×10^11) km (100 billion mi, 1075 AU). That is analogous to one ping-pong ball every 3.2 km (2 mi). Thus, it is considered extremely unlikely that any two stars from the merging galaxies will collide.[6]
Die ist übrigens das Paper, in dem 2012 die Kollision Milchstraße/Andromedagalaxie als mit 100% gegeben bewertet wurde.
"The M31 Velocity Vector. III. Future Milky Way M31-M33 Orbital Evolution, Merging, and Fate of the Sun," van der Marel, Roeland P.; Besla, Gurtina ; Cox, T. J. ; Sohn, Sangmo Tony; Anderson, Jay, The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 753, Issue 1 (2012) (58 pages, 16 figures).
Zitat We study the future orbital evolution and merging of the Milky Way (MW)-M31-M33 system, using a combination of collisionless N-body simulations and semi-analytic orbit integrations. Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the consequences of varying all relevant initial phase-space and mass parameters within their observational uncertainties. The observed M31 transverse velocity from Papers I and II implies that the MW and M31 will merge t = 5.86+1.61 -0.72 Gyr from now. The first pericenter occurs at t = 3.87+0.42 -0.32 Gyr, at a pericenter distance of r = 31.0+38.0 -19.8 kpc. In 41% of Monte Carlo orbits, M31 makes a direct hit with the MW, defined here as a first-pericenter distance less than 25 kpc. For the M31-M33 system, the first-pericenter time and distance are t = 0.85+0.18 -0.13 Gyr and r = 80.8+42.2 -31.7 kpc. By the time M31 gets to its first pericenter with the MW, M33 is close to its second pericenter with M31. For the MW-M33 system, the first-pericenter time and distance are t = 3.70+0.74 -0.46 Gyr and r = 176.0+239.0 -136.9 kpc. The most likely outcome is for the MW and M31 to merge first, with M33 settling onto an orbit around them that may decay toward a merger later. However, there is a 9% probability that M33 makes a direct hit with the MW at its first pericenter, before M31 gets to or collides with the MW. Also, there is a 7% probability that M33 gets ejected from the Local Group, temporarily or permanently. The radial mass profile of the MW-M31 merger remnant is significantly more extended than the original profiles of either the MW or M31, and suggests that the merger remnant will resemble an elliptical galaxy. The Sun will most likely (~85% probability) end up at a larger radius from the center of the MW-M31 merger remnant than its current distance from the MW center, possibly further than 50 kpc (~10% probability). There is a ~20% probability that the Sun will at some time in the next 10 Gyr find itself moving through M33 (within 10 kpc), but while dynamically still bound to the MW-M31 merger remnant. The arrival and possible collision of M31 (and possibly M33) with the MW is the next major cosmic event affecting the environment of our Sun and solar system that can be predicted with some certainty.
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