Zitat von ZRDiese chinesische Mission schließt damit eng an die vergleichbare Mission DART der amerikanischen Raumfahrtbehörde NASA an, dem Double Asteroid Redirection Test, die seit dem 24. November 2021 unterwegs zum Asteroiden Dimorphos ist. Dabei handelt es sich um die kleinere Hälfte eines Doppel-Asteroiden, gewissermaßen den Mond des Asteroiden Didymos. Während Didymos einen Durchmesser von 780 Metern aufweist, mißt sein 2003 entdeckter Trabant nur rund 160 Meter. Zwischen dem 26. September und 1. Oktober 2022, in gut 6 bis 7 Wochen also, soll die 500 kg schwere DART-Sonde, nach dem Aussetzen mehrere Kleinsatelliten („Cubesats“) zur Missionsbeobachtung, mit einer Geschwindigkeit von 6,6 Kilometern pro Sekunde, auf dessen Oberfläche einschlagen. Auch hier ist es das Ziel der kosmischen Tontaubenschießens, festzustellen, ob sich durch den Impakt eine Änderung der Umlaufbahn ergibt – und es sich möglicherweise lohnt, diesen Ansatz weiter zu verfolgen, um im Fall eines tatsächlich drohenden irdischen Einschlags praktische Maßnahmen dagegen treffen zu können.
Hier gibt es dazu eine Missionsübersicht sowie einen Countdown:
Zitat Double Asteroid Redirection Test NASA'S FIRST PLANETARY DEFENSE TEST MISSION
Countdown to DART's Impact on September 26, 2022, 7:14 p.m. EDT 12 Days : 09 Hours : 22 Minutes : 53
Zitat DART Impactor DART is a low-cost spacecraft. The main structure of the spacecraft is a box with dimensions of roughly 1.2 × 1.3 × 1.3 meters (3.9 × 4.3 × 4.3 feet), from which other structures extend to result in measurements of roughly 1.8 meters (5.9 feet) in width, 1.9 meters (6.2 feet) in length, and 2.6 meters (8.5 feet) in height. The spacecraft has two very large solar arrays that when fully deployed are each 8.5 meters (27.9 feet) long. DART will navigate to crash itself into Dimorphos at a speed of approximately 6.1 kilometers (3.8 miles) per second. The total mass of the DART spacecraft was approximately 1,345 pounds (610 kilograms) at launch and will be roughly 1260 pounds (570 kilograms) at impact. DART carries both hydrazine propellant (about 110 pounds, or 50 kilograms) for spacecraft maneuvers and attitude control, and xenon (about 130 pounds, or 60 kilograms) to operate the ion propulsion technology demonstration engine.
Zitat von 22:47 BST, 14 September 2022 | UPDATED: 09:14 BST, 15 September 2022Meteor streaks across Scotland’s skies ‘so low you could HEAR it’ leaving locals transfixed
A large meteor has been spotted over Scotland and the north of England.
Video shot form a back garden in Motherwell shows large bright object flying from let to right an a downwards angle followed by a long tail.
The UK Meteor Network has received more than 200 public reports about a fireball in the sky. A couple of their cameras caught the image.
Many people reported hearing a loud bang as the object entered the Earth's atmosphere and shot past the sound barrier.
According to initial reports the meteor has heading from the south west over the island of Ireland and across to Scotland.
Alan McGowan, of Dunblane, Stirlingshire, said: 'I saw it arc slowly across the night sky as I drove through Dunblane with my dad around 10pm. It was a huge burning ball of green with an orange flaming tail. It was amazing to see. At first we thought it was a crashing plane or helicopter then realised it was likely a meteor.'
One video shot in Dublin saw the meteor lighting the night's sky green.
Some witnesses claimed that the object crashed north of Glasgow although there has been no proof of an impact.
Zitat Residents in Scotland and Northern England were stunned to witness a likely meteor gliding through the sky, describing the event as “unbelievable” and “stunning”.
Als ich das gelesen habe, musste ich an Shakespeare denken: “When beggars die, there are no comets seen. The heavens themselves blaze forth the death of princes.”
Wie passend, dass der größte Meteoritensturz ausgerechnet zeitgleich passiert mit dem dortigen Tod der Königin...
Zitat von Ulrich Elkmann im Beitrag #2 Hier gibt es dazu eine Missionsübersicht sowie einen Countdown:
Zitat Double Asteroid Redirection Test NASA'S FIRST PLANETARY DEFENSE TEST MISSION
Countdown to DART's Impact on September 26, 2022, 7:14 p.m. EDT 12 Days : 09 Hours : 22 Minutes : 53
Da sieh' mal einer an: Analog Science Fiction - Science Fact, September/October 2022. Das bekommt man auch nicht oft zu lesen: Eine Science-Fiction-Story, die buchstäblich nächsten Montag spielt.
Zitat von Tangent Online, 22 September 2022, Mike BickerdikeThis bimonthly issue of Analog has a lot on offer, containing a novella by Michael Cassutt, 4 novelettes, 15 short stories and 2 pieces of flash fiction.
“Shepherd Moons” by Jerry Oltion, is a novelette in which the real-life impact of a spacecraft with an asteroid, occurring this year, is given a fictional treatment. The DART spacecraft (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) is being undertaken by NASA to determine how much an asteroid can be redirected by collision, with impact due on 26th September 2022. In Oltion’s story based on these contemporary events, the impact and damage to the asteroid reveal an alien presence in our solar system, which is followed up by a manned mission to the asteroid. It’s quite a nice idea, but it unfortunately fails to translate into a particularly interesting or believable story. The protagonist doesn’t convince as a lead astronaut, and the tale would have been more engaging if the prose axiom of ‘show don’t tell’ was more often adhered to. Overall, rather a missed opportunity for a cool real-life tie-in.
Zitat von Analog, Sept.-Oct. 2022"Shepherd Moons" by Jerry Oltion
It wasn’t every day that NASA whacked an asteroid with a half-ton space probe. DART was designed to test how much influence an impact would have on the asteroid’s orbit, but it was also proof of concept for much more ambitious missions to follow, some of which might be crewed depending upon what they discovered tonight. Didymos was an Earth-crossing asteroid with a two-year period, relatively easy to reach and relatively easy to return from after an extended stay. If NASA ever sent a mission out there, Priya planned to be on board.
The mission clock ticked over to 6:30. Forty-four minutes to impact. Didymos was a bright speck in the center of the field, still too small to show a disk. But the probe was approaching at over four miles per second, and as they watched, a dimmer speck separated from the bright one. Dimorphos, Didymus’s tiny moon. That was the actual target. DART would strike it head-on as it swung around in its orbit, slowing it down by a smidgen, enough for telescopes on Earth to detect the difference in its period after a few more orbits. And that sudden slowdown would change the orbit of the larger companion by an even smaller smidgen. Not enough to matter, but it was a proof-of-concept mission, a demonstration that we could alter the orbit of an asteroid if we needed to.
A cheer filled the room as the two bright dots separated. “Right on schedule,” Mark said. So far the mission was going nominally. It was entirely automated at this point, with the probe thirty-six light-seconds away, so if anything went wrong, there would be little the controllers could do to correct it.
“It’ll be switching guidance from Didymos to Dimorphos,” Priya said. And as she spoke, the view gave a little jerk. “That was the thruster.”
The mission communicator a few stations down the row said, “The probe has achieved a navigation lock on Dimorphos. All systems are ‘go.’ Forty-one minutes to impact.”
Priya said, “That means the probe is . . . almost exactly ten thousand miles out.” ... The two specks drew apart on the monitor as the probe closed in. Mark said, “I read somewhere that the number of Earth-grazing asteroids that are binary is way higher than the number of binaries out in the main asteroid belt. Weird statistic.”
Priya said, “It’s the YORP effect. Sunlight on a rotating body makes it spin faster, and it eventually breaks apart. Sunlight is stronger on near-Earth asteroids than on main belt asteroids.”
Mark laughed. “I was just going to guess that.”
“Sure you were.”
Priya took a sip of coffee and kept the mug in her hand for warmth. She had become shivering cold in the last few minutes.
They watched the asteroids draw apart, Didymos finally becoming a disk rather than just a point of light. It was roughly spherical, with boulders and depressions more or less at random. Dimorphos was much smaller, only five hundred feet, a fifth the size of Didymos, so they didn’t see detail until just a couple minutes before impact. When they did, all that stood out was just a bright spot on a surprisingly smooth, round surface.
“That’s weird,” Priya said. “It’s more spherical than Didymos. You’d expect the smaller one to be more ragged. Less gravity to pull things together.”
It was growing fast now. Didymos slid off to the side of the screen, leaving Dimorphos dead center. The bright spot began to take on shape, but that shape was perfectly round. Round with a blister dead center. Sunlight angling in from the side made it obvious that they were looking at a dome. A dome with round ports, dish antennae, and angled black solar panels.
Voices raised all around the control room. “What the hell! That’s artificial! Who put that there?”
Zitat Curiosity@MAstronomers Asteroid Sar2667, approximately one meter in diameter, was expected to strike near the French city of Le Havre at 02:59 UTC. Gijs de Reijke traveled to a photogenic location close to home in the southern Netherlands to capture it, and this was the result. Credits & 📸: Gijs de Reijke 10:23 PM · Nov 3, 2024
Zitat Tiny Asteroid To Hit Earth Over Siberia Today – Here's What To Know - It most definitely will not be a second Tunguska Event.
In a matter of hours, a small asteroid will burn over the Siberian skies. This is only the 11th time that an asteroid has been predicted to hit our planet before it actually happened, but it shows that the system of planetary defense is working!
At around 4:15 pm UTC today, the asteroid will burn in the atmosphere. The object is tiny, about 70 centimeters (27.6 inches) in diameter. It's not the smallest known asteroid – a previously predicted impactor holds that record for now. It's still pretty small and a testament to the observatories that can spot these tiny rocks and the software developed to quickly work out where and when they are going to hit.
The asteroid was discovered by the Kitt Peak National Observatory in Tucson Arizona. This is the fourth prediction of an asteroid impact in 2024. In January, a bright fireball burned over Berlin and left behind extremely rare meteorites. In September, a bright fireball exploded over the Philippines. Another one burned over the Pacific in October. Four in one year is a new record!
The region where the fireball is expected to take place is scarcely populated so we might not get footage like after the Chelyabinsk meteor. Plus this asteroid is more than 30 times smaller than that so it won’t be as spectacular or damaging.
Zitat A small asteroid hit Earth and burned up over Siberia
Astronomers spotted a 70-centimetre asteroid hours before it hit the atmosphere above northern Siberia, making a fireball in the sky
By Matthew Sparkes
3 December 2024 , updated 3 December 2024
An asteroid around 70 centimetres in diameter was spotted by astronomers hours before burning up harmlessly but spectacularly in the atmosphere above Siberia.
The European Space Agency (ESA) issued an alert at 9.27 am GMT, warning that the space rock would light up the sky at around 11.15 pm local time (4.15 pm GMT) above northern Siberia.
Zitat Meteorite strike in P.E.I. 'not like anything we've ever heard before'
23 hours ago NewsDuration 7:23
An Island homeowner captured what's believed to be a first: the sight and sound of a meteorite striking the earth. CBC News: Compass host Louise Martin speaks with Chris Herd, the meteorite collection curator at the University of Alberta, about this rare rock discovery.
Zitat After becoming curious about the dust in front of their home in July 2024, the homeowners checked their security camera footage and noticed an astonishing sight: the exact moment a rock came out of nowhere and landed on the path, scattering grey dust and fragments across the walk and grass. Blink and you’ll miss it: the rock can only be seen in one frame of the video, which indicates rapid movement, but the exploding dust and sound of the impact was undeniable. It clearly came from the sky and appeared to be a meteorite.
The homeowners recovered about 7 grams of the rock from the grass next to the walkway, returning to pick up more samples in the coming days using a vacuum and magnet. They also connected with Chris Herd, curator of the University of Alberta’s Meteorite Collection and professor in the Faculty of Science, via the University of Alberta’s Meteorite Reporting System.
Upon examination of photos of the fragments, Herd confirmed the discovery was, in fact, a meteorite. By chance, he had planned a family trip to Prince Edward Island a mere 10 days after the fall; the trip now included a diversion to check the space where the meteorite landed. With the help of some family members Herd documented the meteorite fragments, measured a 2 x 2 cm divot in the walkway formed by the meteorite’s impact, and recovered a subset of the fragments to become part of the University of Alberta Meteorite Collection. Analysis shows that the newly-named Charlottetown Meteorite is an ordinary chondrite with features that help to explain why it broke apart as it hit the ground.
“As the first and only meteorite from the province of PEI, the Charlottetown Meteorite sure announced its arrival in a spectacular way. No other meteorite fall has been documented like this, complete with sound,” Herd says. “It adds a whole new dimension to the natural history of the Island.”
30 km von dem Schreibtisch, an dem ich das hier gerade tippe, befindet sich an der Straße zwischen Gronau und Enschede, 2 km vor dem Ortseingang und 3 km, nachdem die Enscheder Straße zur Groonause Straat geworden ist, gleich neben dem Radweg zur rechten Hand ein kleiner Findling aus der letzten Eiszeit, und darauf eine Messingplakette, die seit 2015 an den Einschlag des "Glanderburg-meteorit" am 7. April 1990 erinnert. Der Meteorit hat am Ostermontag um 19:32 MEZ nach einer Eintrittsgeschwindigkeit von 21 m/s in die Erdatmosphäre das Vordach eines Einfamilienhauses durchschlagen und ist am Morgen darauf von der Familie Wichmann, die von Verwandtenbesuch heimkam, gefunden worden. Zunächst ist die Polizei von Vandalismus ausgegangen. Aus den Beobachtungen des Feuerballs konnte die genaue Flugbahn des kleinen Asteroiden berechnet werden. Es handelt sich um einen Chondriten (einen Steinmeteor), des Subtyps LL4-6 mit einer Gesamtmasse von 855 g; das größte geborgene Fragment wiegt 135 g. Das Perihel der Bahn lag bei 0,91 AE, das Aphel bei 3,5 AE mit einer Neigung von 23 Grad zur Ekliptik und dem aufsteigenden Knoten bei 17,816°. Die Einflugschneise verlief knapp nördlich des Münsterlands. Die Leuchtspur des Meteoritenbegann in 50 km Höhe bei 52°44' N und 7°46' O, 8 km südlichen von Lingen und endete 5 km westlich von Bad Bentheim auf 52°33' N und 7°07' O in 22 km Höhe.
Beim Charlottetown-Meteor sind ungefähr 7g Material gefunden worden; da der Stein am helligten Tag und bei Regenwetter herunterkam, gibt es keine Möglichkeit, aus weiteren Aufnahmen oder Beobachtungen die Flugbahn zu berechnen. Chemisch handelt des sich ebenfalls um einen Chondriten, der zu 48% aus Olivin und zu 52% aus Pyroxen besteht.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Zitat von Ulrich Elkmann im Beitrag Eine wirkliche Mondrakete. Hin und wieder zurück"Mons Mouton" war mir als topographische Bezeichnung auf dem Mond bislang unbekannt; ich sehe, daß die offizielle Benennung durch die IAU erst im Mai 2022 erfolgt ist. Es handelt sich um die höchste Erhebung auf dem Mond...
Apropos IAU. Gerade wurde dort das nächste Weltende im Terminkalender angekreuzt.
Zitat The date of the end of the world is known
The IAU has announced the date of the end of the world: On December 22, 2032, an asteroid with a diameter of 70 meters may collide with the Earth
The International Astronomical Union (IAU) uses the Turin Scale to assess the risk of asteroid impacts with the Earth. The current value of the asteroid 2024 YR4 is 3, the only asteroid with a value above zero.
The probability of impact is 6%, with possible destruction within a radius of 30 km. The remaining 94% indicate a flyby at a distance of 60,000 km - the trajectory will be clarified by observations in 2028/2029. 3:20 PM · Jan 29, 2025
Zitat A lurking threat from the cosmos has astronomers—both seasoned pros and enthusiastic amateurs—on high alert as a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, passes through our solar neighborhood. This celestial rock, first noticed just days after Christmas 2024, currently presents a minimal impact chance of about 1.2%. However, its potential consequences could be catastrophic, enough to obliterate a city if it veers off course and strikes our planet on December 22, 2032.
NASA’s impact tracking system recently raised the alert level for 2024 YR4, marking it with a level 3 on the Torino scale, a measure used for assessing asteroid risks. Only one other asteroid has matched this level, a reminder that even slight probabilities can lead to intense scrutiny. With an estimated size between 40 and 100 meters, this asteroid could unleash destruction akin to the infamous Chelyabinsk meteor or even a major impact event.
Zitat 2024 YR4 is an asteroid between 40 and 100 metres (130 and 330 ft) in diameter, classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object. It was discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on 27 December 2024.[2][1] As of 28 January 2025, 2024 YR4 is rated 3 on the Torino scale with a 1 in 83 (1.2%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.[5] NASA gives a Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating of –0.56 for 2024 YR4, which corresponds to an impact hazard 3.6 times less than the background hazard level.[5]
The asteroid previously made a close approach of 828,800 kilometres (515,000 miles; 2.156 lunar distances) to Earth on 25 December 2024 (two days before its discovery), and is now moving away from Earth until it makes its next close approach on 17 December 2028.[3]
With an observation arc of 34 days as of 28 January 2025, 2024 YR4 has a 1 in 83 (1.2%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032 (with an uncertainty of 1.5 days).[3] The nominal closest approach to Earth on that day is 127,699 km (79,348 mi), with an uncertainty of 1.408 million km (0.87 million mi).[3] Due to 2024 YR4's large size and greater-than-1% impact probability, it is rated at Torino scale level 3.[5][6] This is the second-highest Torino scale rating an asteroid has ever reached, behind 99942 Apophis which previously ranked Torino scale level 4.[6] NASA gives a Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating of –0.56 for 2024 YR4, which corresponds to an impact hazard 3.6 times less than the background hazard level.[5] The European Space Agency gives a Palermo rating of –0.54,[4] while NEODyS gives –0.49.[9] The risk corridor of 2024 YR4's possible impact locations runs from the Pacific Ocean to South America, the Atlantic Ocean, central Africa, and then to northern India.[8]
The earliest known precovery (pre-discovery) observation of 2024 YR4 was on 25 December 2024, although the measured position of the asteroid in that observation is poor.[1][10] A search through archival Subaru Telescope images from 2016 did not find 2024 YR4, which rules out some distant approaches to Earth in 2032.[8] This raises 2024 YR4's impact probability to 3–6%, depending on whether the 25 December 2024 precovery observation is included in the orbit calculation.[10]
Zitat Latest in space@latestinspace NASA says there's now a 3.1% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032 This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received 7:59 PM · Feb 18, 2025
Zitat As of 18 February 2025, 2024 YR4 was rated as a 3 on the Torino scale, with a 1-in-32 (3.1%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.[7] NASA assigns a Palermo scale rating of −0.18 to 2024 YR4, corresponding to an impact hazard 66.1% of the background level.[7] The uncertainty region for the 2032 asteroid passage is 1.3 million km wide at the time of the Virtual Impactor.[13]
Ein kurzer Rekurs auf den ZR-Beitrag: der Asteroideneinschlag in Norditalien in Arthur C. Clarkes Roman "Rendezvous with Rama," der dort Padua, Verona und Venedig ausgelöscht und zur Gründung des Project SPACEGUARD geführt hat, ist am 11. September (!) 2077 um 9:46 Weltzeit erfolgt; der Bolide hatte eine Masse von 1000 Tonnen.
Wiki nochmal:
Zitat If 2024 YR4 reflects between 5% and 25% of visible light, then its diameter is between 40 and 90 m (130 and 300 ft).[6] NASA estimates a diameter of 55 m (180 ft) for an assumed geometric albedo of 0.154.[7] These estimates make 2024 YR4 around the same size as the asteroid that caused the 1908 Tunguska event or the iron–nickel asteroid that created the Meteor Crater in Arizona 50,000 years ago.[20] 2024 YR4 is significantly smaller than Dimorphos, the impact target of NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART). The diameter and albedo of 2024 YR4 can be further constrained with thermal infrared observations, radar observations, an occultation of a star, or direct imaging by a spacecraft.[17]
The mass and density of 2024 YR4 have not been measured, but the mass can be loosely estimated with an assumed density and the estimated diameter. Assuming a density of 2.6 g/cm3,[21] which is within the density range for stony asteroids such as 243 Ida,[22] the Sentry risk table estimates a mass of 2.2×10^8 kg with an assumed diameter of 55 meters.[7]
Bei der nächsten Annäherung am 17. Dezember 2028 wird die kleinste Entfernung etwa das 20-fache der Entfernung Erde-Mond betragen.
Zitat Calculations using the observation arc of 55 days as of 18 February 2025 find that 2024 YR4 has a 1-in-32 (3.1%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032 around 14:02 UT[7] and has a probability of impacting the Moon on 22 December 2032 around 15:19 UT. The nominal closest approach to Earth is on the 22nd at 11:37 UT (with an uncertainty in the closest approach time of about 9.5 hours and being 2.5 hours earlier than virtual impactor) at a distance of 123,000 kilometres (76,000 miles; 0.32 lunar distances), with a 3-sigma uncertainty of 458,000 kilometres (285,000 miles; 1.19 lunar distances). The nominal closest approach to Moon is on the 22nd at 17:44 UT[3] Due to 2024 YR4's size and greater-than-1% impact probability, it is rated at Torino scale level 3, which has prompted the International Asteroid Warning Network to issue a notice on 29 January 2025.[16][26]
In Clarkes späterem Roman "The Hammer of God" (1993) kommt der Autor gleich zu Anfang noch einmal auf das Projekt Spaceguard zurück; dort wird die Initialzündung des Überwachungsprogramms auf die Rückkehr des Halleyschen Kometen 2061 und einen etwas heftigeren Einschlag im Atlantik 2077 datiert; der Asteroid Kali, dessen Sprenung die Handlung des Buchs schildert, wird Ende 2109 entdeckt. (In zwei anderen Belangen hat der Autor dort etwas weniger Fortüne bewiesen: zum einen ist in Buch die Hauptenergiequelle der Weltwirtschaft die "kalte Wasserstofffusion" - Pons + Fleischmann lassen grüßen - und zum Zweiten ist die dominierende Weltreligion der "Chrislam", ein hybrides Gemengsel aus beidem - "der seinen Ursprung im Ölkrieg des Jahres 1990 hatte - die Zeit war reif für eine neue Religion, die die besten Seiten der beiden alten miteinander verband").
Apropos "kalte Fusion": Perplex muß ich feststellen, daß die US-Regierung dafür im Jahr 2023 10 Millionen USD versenkt hat:
Zitat Cold fusion is making a scientific comeback - A US agency is funding low-energy nuclear reactions to the tune of $10 million. By Rahul Rao Posted on Jul 3, 2023
Cold fusion, better known by its practitioners as LENR, is the science—or, perhaps, the art—of making atomic nuclei merge and, ideally, harnessing the resultant energy. All of this happens without the incredible temperatures, on the scale of millions of degrees, that you need for “traditional” fusion. In a dream world, successful cold fusion could provide us with a boundless supply of clean, easily attainable energy.
Tantalizing as it sounds, for the past 30 years, cold fusion has largely been a forgotten specter of one of science’s most notorious controversies, when a pair of chemists in 1989 claimed to achieve the feat—which no one else could replicate. There is still no generally accepted theory that supports cold fusion; many still doubt that it’s possible at all. But those physicists and engineers who work on LENR believe the new grants are a sign that their field is being taken seriously after decades in the wilderness.
Zitat WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced $10 million in funding for eight projects working to determine whether low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR) could be the basis for a potentially transformative carbon-free energy source. The teams selected today—from universities, a national laboratory, and small business—aim to break the stalemate of research in this space.
The following teams have been selected to receive funding as part of the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) LENR Exploratory Topic:
Amphionic (Dexter, MI) will focus on exploring if LENR are produced in potential wells existing between two nanoscale surfaces by controlling metal nanoparticle (NP) geometry, separation, composition, and deuterium loading. (Award amount: $295,924) Energetics Technology Center (Indian Head, MD) will use electrochemical co-deposition of a deuterated palladium metal compound on a metal substrate conformed onto a plastic scintillator to establish and sustain LENR. (Award amount: $1,500,000) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley, CA) will draw from knowledge based on previous work using higher energy ion beams as an external excitation source for LENR on metal hydrides electrochemically loaded with deuterium. The team proposes to systematically vary materials and conditions, while monitoring nuclear event rates with a suite of diagnostics. (Award amount: $1,500,000) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Cambridge, MA) will develop an experimental platform that thoroughly and reproducibly tests claims of nuclear anomalies in gas-loaded metal-hydrogen systems. (Award amount: $2,000,000) Stanford University (Redwood City, CA) will explore a technical solution based on LENR-active nanoparticles and gaseous deuterium. (Award amount: $1,500,000) Texas Tech University (Lubbock, TX) will focus on advanced materials fabrication, characterization, and analysis, along with advanced detection of nuclear products as a resource for teams within the LENR Exploratory Topic. (Award amount: $1,150,000) University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, MI) will use a gas cycling experiment that passes deuterium gas through a chamber filled with palladium nanocrystalline samples. Variables will include temperature, nanocrystalline size, and laser wavelength. (Award amount: $1,108,412) University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, MI) will provide capability to measure hypothetical neutron, gamma, and ion emissions from LENR experiments. Modern instrumentation will be coupled with best practices in data acquisition, analysis, and understanding of backgrounds to interpret collected data and evaluate the proposed signal. (Award amount: $902,213)
Und wenn man das Department of Energy um ein interpoliertes G erweitert, dann weiß ich auch schon, welche Behörde da demnächst den Rotstift ansetzen sollte. Sobald sie nachgeschaut haben, ob in Fort Knox gähnende Leere herrscht. Wobei ... Hat nicht Auric Goldfinger (gespielt von Gert Fröbe) im dritten Bond-Streifen von 1964 den Plan gehabt, die Goldreserven dort mittels einer Kobaltbombe zu verstrahlen und so unbrauchbar zu machen? In der Romanversion von 1959 will er sie sich jedenfalls unter den Nagel reißen. Und ich stelle gerade verblüfft fest, daß Pussy Galore im Film von Honor Blackman gespielt worden ist, die in den Staffeln 2 und 3 von "The Avengers" die Vorläuferin von Emma Peel war.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Noch zum obigen. Die bislang berechnete mögliche Impaktzone von 2024 YR4 führt über folgende Städte: Südamerika: Bogotá Afrika; Abidjian, Lagos und Khartoum Indien: Mumbai, Dhaka.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Zitat To understand why the odds from NASA are changing and whether we should be concerned about 2024 YR4, Ars connected with Robin George Andrews, author of the recently published book How to Kill an Asteroid. Good timing with the publication date, eh?
Ars: Why are the impact odds increasing?
Robin George Andrews: The asteroid’s orbit is not known to a great deal of precision right now, as we only have a limited number of telescopic observations of it. However, even as the rock zips farther away from Earth, certain telescopes are still managing to spy it and extend our knowledge of the asteroid’s orbital arc around the Sun. The odds have fluctuated in both directions over the last few weeks, but overall, they have risen; that’s because the amount of uncertainty astronomers have as to its true orbit has shrunk, but Earth has yet to completely fall out of that zone of uncertainty. As a proportion of the remaining uncertainty, Earth is taking up more space, so for now, its odds are rising.
Think of it like a beam of light coming out of the front of that asteroid. That beam of light shrinks as we get to know its orbit better, but if Earth is yet to fall out of that beam, it takes up proportionally more space. So, for a while, the asteroid’s impact odds rise. It’s very likely that, with sufficient observations, Earth will fall out of that shrinking beam of light eventually, and the impact odds will suddenly fall to zero. The alternative, of course, is that they'll rise close to 100 percent.
Andrews: The damage it could cause would be localized to a roughly city-sized area, so if it hits the middle of the ocean or a vast desert, nothing would happen. But it could trash a city, or completely destroy much of one, with a direct hit.
The key factor here (if you had to pick one) is the asteroid’s mass. Each time the asteroid gets twice as long (presuming it’s roughly spherical), it brings with it 8 times more kinetic energy. So if the asteroid is on the smaller end of the estimated size range—40 meters—then it will be as if a small nuclear bomb exploded in the sky. At that size, unless it’s very iron-rich, it wouldn’t survive its atmospheric plunge, so it would explode in mid-air. There would be modest-to-severe structural damage right below the blast, and minor to moderate structural damage over tens of miles. A 90-meter asteroid would, whether it makes it to the ground or not, be more than 10x more energetic; a large nuclear weapon blast, then. A large city would be severely damaged, and the area below the blast would be annihilated.
Ars: Do we have any idea where the asteroid might strike on Earth?
Andrews: The "risk corridor" is currently spread over parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. Additional observations will ultimately narrow this down, if an impact remains possible.
Ars: What key observations are we still waiting for that might clarify the threat?
Andrews: Most telescopes will lose sight of this "small" asteroid in the coming weeks. But the James Webb Space Telescope will be able to track it until May. For the first time, it’s been authorized for planetary defense purposes, largely because its infrared eye allows it to track the asteroid further out than optical light telescopes. JWST will not only improve our understanding of its orbit, but also constrain its size. First observations should appear by the end of March.
JWST may rule out an impact in 2032. But there's a chance we may be stuck with a few-percentage impact probability until 2028, when the asteroid makes its next Earth flyby. Bit awkward, if so.
Ars: NASA's DART mission successfully shifted an asteroid's orbit in 2022. Could this technology be used?
Andrews: Not necessarily. DART—a type of spacecraft called a kinetic impactor—was a great success. But it still only changed Dimorphos' orbit by a small amount. Ideally, you want many years of advance notice to deflect an asteroid with something like DART to ensure the asteroid has moved out of Earth’s way. I've often been told that at least 10 years prior to impact is best if you want to be sure to deflect a city killing-size asteroid. That’s not to say deflection is impossible; it just becomes trickier to pull off. You can’t just hit it with a colossal spacecraft, because you may fragment it into several still-dangerously sized pieces. Hit it too softly, and it will still hit Earth, but somewhere that wasn’t originally going to be hit. You have to be super careful here.
Some rather clever scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (which has a superb planetary defense contingent) worked out that, for a 90-meter asteroid, you need 10 years to confidently deflect it with a kinetic impactor to prevent an Earth impact. So, to deflect 2024 YR4, if it’s 90 meters long and we have just a few years of time, we’d probably need a bigger impactor spacecraft (but don’t break it!)—or we’d need several kinetic impactors to deflect it (but each has to work perfectly).
Eight years until impact is a little tight. It’s not impossible that the choice would be made to use a nuclear weapon to deflect it; this could be very awkward geopolitically, but a nuke would impart a bigger deflection than an equivalent DART-like spacecraft. Or, maybe, they’d opt to try and vaporize the asteroid with something like a 1 megaton nuke, which LLNL says would work with an asteroid this size.
Ars: So it's kind of late in the game to be planning an impact mission?
Andrews: This isn’t an ideal situation. And humanity has never tried to stop an asteroid impact for real. I imagine that if 2024 YR4 does become an agreed-upon emergency, the DART team (JHUAPL + NASA, mostly) would join forces with SpaceX (and other space agencies, particularly ESA but probably others) to quickly build the right mass kinetic impactor (or impactors) and get ready for a deflection attempt close to 2028, when the asteroid makes its next Earth flyby. But yeah, eight years is not too much time.
A deflection could work! But it won’t be as simple as just hitting the asteroid really hard in 2028.
Zitat Now that skies are darker after a week of limited visibility around full moon, astronomers have resumed observations of asteroid 2024 YR4. Ground-based telescopes require dark skies to observe asteroids, which are often very faint. Around the time of a full moon, the sky becomes too bright to detect these faint points of light.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has incorporated the new observations reported to the Minor Planet Center and on Feb. 18, updated the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 to 3.1%. This is the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However, on Wednesday, Feb. 19, new data collected overnight reduced the impact probability to 1.5%.
Zitat NASA massively lowers impact risk of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 360
If you've been worrying about reports of a possible asteroid impact in 2032, we have very good news. NASA has dropped the probability of an impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 — at first to 1 in 67, and now to 1 in 360.
NASA announced the first reduced impact risk on its X feed at around 5:00 p.m. EST (2200 GMT) on Wednesday (Feb. 19), and the second a day after on Thursday (Feb. 20). The updated assessments were based on new orbital data for the asteroid, which is estimated to be around 180 feet (55 meters) wide, collected overnight between Feb. 18 and Feb. 20.
The radical drop in impact risk for 2024 YR4 comes just days after its risk factor was increased to 1 in 32, or 3.1%. This increase saw 2024 YR4 become the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table. Now, however, with an impact risk of just 1 in 360, or 0.28%, asteroid 2024 YR4's hazard level on the Torino scale — used to categorize how dangerous an asteroid is — stands at 1. A 1 on this scale suggests the "chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern."
Despite the extreme drop in impact risk, 2024 YR4 still sits at the top of the Sentry table. The next riskiest asteroid on the table is 1950 DA, which has a 0.039% chance of impacting Earth in 2880.
Regarding the latest drop in 2024 YR4's possible impact, NASA wrote: "Observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%."
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