Zitat NASA Adjusts Crew-9 Launch Date for Operational Flexibility
Elyna Niles-Carnes - Posted on August 6, 2024 - Categories Commercial Crew, Crew-9,
NASA and SpaceX are targeting no earlier than Tuesday, Sept. 24, for the launch of the agency’s Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station.
This adjustment allows more time for mission managers to finalize return planning for the agency’s Boeing Crew Flight Test currently docked to the orbiting laboratory. Starliner ground teams are taking their time to analyze the results of recent docked hot-fire testing, finalize flight rationale for the spacecraft’s integrated propulsion system, and confirm system reliability ahead of Starliner’s return to Earth. NASA and Boeing continue to evaluate the spacecraft’s readiness, and no decisions have been made regarding Starliner’s return.
The Crew-9 launch adjustment also deconflicts the next SpaceX rotation with the upcoming Soyuz handover targeted for no earlier than mid-September. Teams are working to prepare the Crew-9 mission to be ready to launch from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida to deconflict with pad preparations for NASA’s Europa Clipper mission beginning this September at nearby Launch Complex 39A at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center. NASA also will adjust the launch of SpaceX’s 31st commercial resupply services mission to no earlier than mid-October.
The agency will host a media teleconference at 12:30 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, Aug. 7, with agency leadership to discuss ongoing operations, including NASA’s Crew-9, Crew-8, and Crew Flight Test missions.
Zitat Eric Berger@SciGuySpace Steve Stich confirms my reporting from two days ago: Starliner presently does not have the capability to undock autonomously without changes to the software configuration on the vehicle. 6:48 PM · Aug 7, 2024
Dergleichen könnte sich kein überkandidelter SF-Autor ausdenken. Die Kapsel hatte die Fähigkeit, automatisch abzudocken & hat das beim ersten erfolgreichen Testflug so durchgeführt.
Daraufhin strickt Boeing das Betriebssystem so um, daß beim ersten bemannten Einsatz ein Abdocken nur mit lebendem Inventar an Bord durchzuführen ist. Das verbietet sich aber, weil in diesem Fall das handfeste Risiko besteht, daß weiter Lagekontrollsysteme ausfallen (weil die Tests in den letzten 7 Wochen (!) noch keine Klarheit über die bisherigen Ausfälle geschaffen haben) und in einem solchen Fall die Besatzung die Kapsel womöglich nicht korrekt für den Wiedereintritt ausrichten kann oder manövrierunfähig in der Umlaufbahn gestrandet ist.
PS.
Zitat Eric Berger@SciGuySpace NASA's Steve Stich says the agency has a plan in place to launch two astronauts on Crew-9, and bring back Butch and Suni in February 2025 on that vehicle. NASA has not decided to activate this option yet. 6:46 PM · Aug 7, 2024
Zitat Michael Sheetz@thesheetztweetz NASA's Steve Stich finally confirms the alternative, if Starliner comes home empty: SpaceX Crew-9 is set up "to have flexibility to have only two passengers fly up," so Butch & Suni would remain on the ISS until February. "We haven't approved this plan" but NASA has "the suits identified to fly up on Crew-9." 6:46 PM · Aug 7, 2024
Zitat Michael Sheetz@thesheetztweetz I asked when NASA needs to make its decision to return Boeing's Starliner with or without crew: NASA's Steve Stich: "We need to probably decide likely in the middle of August one path or the other to go ahead and meet the launch date for Crew-9" on Sept. 24. Today is August 7th. 7:21 PM · Aug 7, 2024
NASA associate administrator Ken Bowersox notes that the agency trying to "be data driven" about assessing the return of Boeing's Starliner. "When we started this mission, it was a test mission. We knew that it potentially had a higher risk." "We're at the point now where we see additional risk that's in a fairly broad uncertainty band." "We have to compare all those risks and we'll weigh all that as we make our final decision."
Bottom line: NASA's hesitancy to return its astronauts on Starliner comes from Boeing not having a root cause identified for the RCS thruster failures and the possibility that additional thrusters fail after undocking.
Zitat Gene J. Mikulka@genejm29 #NASA #CFT #ISS Eric Berger - On software how long will it take to get together? A: Software would be going back to the OFT=2 config, team would be making a shift, we're asking then to go back 2 yrs in time should we have a problem, Teams are always updating data loads...
#NASA #CFT #ISS - So before we employ this ( undock w/out a crew) want to make sure its tested and correct. We've had Boeing focused on returning in a Crewed config, before giving up on that it would be smart to test
#NASA #CFT #ISS IF WE WERE TO PIVIOT to an uncrewed undock that is what we would do. Bowersox - Or chances for an uncrewed Stariner return have increased a little, but we could find our discussions shift in another way 7:29 PM · Aug 7, 2024
Abhi Tripathi@SpaceAbhi This remains the fundamental question: If a capability was required and certified for OFT2, why was in not required/certified for this flight? I would think there would be a simple/valid explanation...or the answer could be "this was a miss."
Zitat Ryan Caton@dpoddolphinpro I asked @NASA's Dana Weigel if the 2 astronauts bumped off Crew-9 would be moved to Crew-10, and if that'd cause a recurring issue down the line: NASA haven’t worked through those specific details, as they tend to assign crew 2 years out for training. In this case the crew are fully qualified to work on ISS and Dragon. NASA will look at the future manifest and just see "what makes sense for the overall crew compliments going forward".
Roundup of today's @NASA Teleconference about @Space_Station Operations and @BoeingSpace's Starliner CFT mission:
Crew-9 - NASA has set up the Crew-9 Dragon to have the flexibility to launch with 2 astronauts, and return with 4 in Feb 2025; SpaceX Suits for Butch & Suni are ready, SpaceX Seats for Butch & Suni are ready. - However, the Crew-9 contingency has not been “formally” enabled yet. - Steve Stich would not say which 2 astronauts would not fly on Crew-9 at this time. - They have another contingency to allow 3 crew members on the Crew-8 cargo pallet if they need to undock Starliner autonomously prior to the arrival of Crew-9 - which would leave Butch & Suni without their spacecraft accessible as a Safe Haven.
Starliner CFT - Ken Bowersox and Dana Weigel would not say which vehicle for Butch & Suni's return they’re leaning towards right now as “it could change drastically” over time. - NASA could certify Starliner for operational crewed missions without bringing Butch & Suni back onboard the vehicle, pending data reviews of the thruster/helium issues. - The Starliner software is the same whether crewed or uncrewed. What needs to be updated is a “specific set of mission parameters”. NASA calls those Mission Data Loads.
July SpaceX Task Order - The SpaceX Task Order in July was for a contingency where Tracy Caldwell Dyson would return on Dragon, and not Soyuz MS-25. Similar to Frank Rubio & Soyuz MS-22.
Fleet Management - Crew-9’s Falcon Booster is now going to be flying on a Starlink mission prior to Crew-9, because of the 1 month slip. 8:05 PM · Aug 7, 2024
Zitat NASA has about a week to decide on returning Boeing’s Starliner with crew or empty
“Roughly by mid-August, we need to decide” on the Starliner return plan, NASA Commercial Crew program manager Steve Stich said during a press conference.
NASA did not specify whether mid-August is in reference to a specific date, such as Aug. 16, or a broader range.
The deadline for the agency’s decision is driven by the timing of the next crew launch. NASA on Tuesday delayed the launch of SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission by a month, to Sept. 24, in order to buy itself more time to figure out the Starliner situation.
NASA leadership confirmed that the agency does not have a consensus internally on whether it will stick with its plan to return astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams on board Starliner or instead send the Boeing capsule down empty and use SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft to bring the astronauts back. ... In a telling indicator of the current feeling inside NASA, officials used the word “uncertainty” 18 times during Wednesday’s press conference.
Zitat Before the Starliner was launched, NASA and Boeing engineers knew about a small helium leak in the spacecraft’s propulsion system. After ground tests and analysis, the team concluded the ship could be safely launched as is.
The day after launch, however, four more helium leaks developed and five aft-facing maneuvering thrusters failed to operate as expected. Ever since NASA and Boeing have been carrying out data reviews and ground tests in an effort to understand exactly what caused both issues.
The Starliner uses pressurized helium to push propellants to the thrusters, which are critical to keeping the spacecraft properly oriented. That’s especially important during the de-orbit braking “burn” using larger rocket engines to slow the ship down for re-entry and an on-target landing. ... Boeing adamantly argues the Crew Dragon backup plan isn’t needed and that tests and analyses of helium leaks in the Starliner’s propulsion system and initial trouble with maneuvering thrusters show the spacecraft has more than enough margin to bring Wilmore and Williams safely back to Earth.
The helium leaks are understood, Boeing says, they have not gotten worse and more than enough of the pressurized gas is on board to push propellants to the thrusters needed to maneuver and stabilize the spacecraft through the critical de-orbit braking burn to drop out of orbit for re-entry and landing.
Likewise, engineers believe they now understand what caused a handful of aft-facing maneuvering jets to overheat and fire at lower-than-expected thrust during rendezvous with the space station, causing the Starliner’s flight computer to shut them down during approach.
Ground tests of a new Starliner thruster, fired hundreds of times under conditions that mimicked what those aboard the spacecraft experienced, replicated the overheating signature, which was likely caused by multiple firings during tests of the capsule’s manual control system during extended exposure to direct sunlight.
The higher-than-expected heating likely caused small seals in thruster valve “poppets” to deform and expand, the analysis indicates, which reduced the flow of propellant. The thrusters aboard the Starliner were test fired in space under more normal conditions and all operated properly, indicating the seals had returned to a less intrusive shape.
New procedures are in place to prevent the overheating that occurred during the rendezvous. Additional manual test firings have been ruled out, no extended exposure to the sun is planned and less frequent firings are required for station departure compared to rendezvous.
In a statement Wednesday, the company said “we still believe in Starliner’s capability and its flight rationale. If NASA decides to change the mission, we will take the actions necessary to configure Starliner for an uncrewed return.”
The helium plumbing and thrusters are housed in the Starliner’s service module, which will be jettisoned to burn up in the atmosphere before the crew capsule re-enters for landing. As such, engineers will never be able to examine the hardware first hand to prove, with certainty, what went wrong.
Zitat Chinese Rocket Breaks Apart in Orbit, Leaves Dangerous Trail of Debris in Space
China's attempt to build an orbital satellite network similar to SpaceX's Starlink is off to an alarming start.
More than 50 pieces of space debris were spotted in the wake of a Chinese rocket launch, which could pose a risk to satellites in low Earth orbit.
However, after deploying the satellites, the rocket’s upper stage appears to have broken apart. Space-tracking firm Slingshot Aerospace recorded more than 50 fragments of debris within the vicinity of the satellites following their deployment, forming a trail of space junk that “pose a significant hazard” to satellite constellations at the same altitude, the firm wrote.
The satellites are the first group in China’s planned 14,000-satellite megaconstellation, aimed at improving broadband services across the nation. This is obviously an ominous start, and a potential bad sign of things to come. “If even a fraction of the launches needed to field this Chinese mega-constellation generate as much debris as this first launch, the result would be a notable addition to the space debris population in LEO,” Audrey Schaffer, vice president of Strategy and Policy at Slingshot Aerospace, said in a statement.
Zur Abwechslung mal wieder Mondflug. Space Launch System. Zur Erläuterung: im Englischen ist es üblich, die verschiedenen Modelle/Auslegungen der Raketen bzw. der einzelnen Stufen als "Block" zu bezeichnen; bei der Falcon 9 ist SpaceX mittlerweile bei Block 5 angelangt. Bei diesem ganz frisch veröffentlichten Prüfbericht der NASA geht es um den Block 1B für die erste bemannte Mondlandung.
Zitat NASA’s Management of Space Launch System Block 1B Development August 8, 2024 - IG-24-015(A-23-08-01-HED)
Scheduled to launch in September 2028, Artemis IV will be the first flight of NASA’s more powerful heavy-lift rocket— the Space Launch System (SLS) Block 1B. The rocket is designed to increase the amount of cargo the SLS can deliver to the Moon. A critical component of this upgrade is The Boeing Company’s (Boeing) development of the SLS’s new upper stage, the Exploration Upper Stage (EUS). Once completed, the EUS will give the SLS a 40 percent upgrade in capability to send the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle capsule and large cargos to the Moon, from 27 metric tons under Block 1—the SLS rocket’s first iteration—to 38 metric tons with Block 1B. The SLS Block 1B has been under development since 2014 and has faced changing technical requirements and competing funding priorities. These factors, along with congressional directives to accelerate the rocket’s development,have led to increased costs and schedule delays. Originally intended for the Artemis II mission, Block 1B's first flight was moved to Artemis IV, extending the development timeline and increasing costs. Boeing’s EUS contract has grown from $962 million to over $2 billion through 2025, contributing to the overall SLS Block 1B cost increase.
WHAT WE FOUND
While NASA requires its aerospace contractors to have quality assurance programs that comply with SAE International’s AS9100D standards on quality management systems, we found Boeing’s quality management system at Michoud does not adhere to these standards or NASA requirements. NASA engages DCMA to conduct surveillance of Boeing’s core and upper stage manufacturing efforts at Michoud, and when deficiencies in quality are found, DCMA issues Corrective Action Requests (CAR) to the contractor. CARs are labeled Level I through IV, with Level I the least serious deficiency. From September 2021 to September 2023, DCMA issued Boeing 71 Level I and II CARs, as well as a draft Level III CAR. According to DCMA officials, this is a high number of CARs for a space flight system at this stage in development and reflects a recurring and degraded state of product quality control. Boeing’s process to address deficiencies to date has been ineffective, and the company has generally been nonresponsive in taking corrective actions when the same quality control issues reoccur.
Quality control issues at Michoud are largely due to the lack of a sufficient number of trained and experienced aerospace workers at Boeing. To mitigate these challenges, Boeing provides training and work orders to its employees. Considering the significant quality control deficiencies at Michoud, we found these efforts to be inadequate. For example, during our visit to Michoud in April 2023, we observed a liquid oxygen fuel tank dome—a critical component of the SLS Core Stage 3—segregated and pending disposition on whether and how it can safely be used going forward due to welds that did not meet NASA specifications. According to NASA officials, the welding issues arose due to Boeing’s inexperienced technicians and inadequate work order planning and supervision. The lack of a trained and qualified workforce increases the risk that Boeing will continue to manufacture parts and components that do not adhere to NASA requirements and industry standards.
We project SLS Block 1B costs will reach approximately $5.7 billion before the system is scheduled to launch in 2028. This is $700 million more than NASA’s 2023 Agency Baseline Commitment, which established a cost and schedule baseline at nearly $5 billion. EUS development accounts for more than half of this cost, which we estimate will increase from an initial cost of $962 million in 2017 to nearly $2.8 billion through 2028. Boeing’s delivery of the EUS to NASA has also been delayed from February 2021 to April 2027, and when combined with other factors, suggests the September 2028 Artemis IV launch date could be delayed as well. Factors contributing to these cost increases and schedule delays include redirection of EUS funds to the core stage during Artemis I production, changing Artemis mission assignments, maintaining an extended workforce 7 years more than planned, manufacturing issues, and supply chain challenges.
NASA delayed establishing the Block 1B Agency Baseline Commitment until December 2023, after 10 years of development and much later in the project life cycle than NASA’s standard practice. Without a formal cost and schedule baseline at critical milestones, the Agency was limited in its ability to assess adherence to budgets and timelines, and Congress and other stakeholders lacked visibility into the Block 1B’s increasing costs and schedule delays. Additionally, Boeing Defense, Space & Security’s EVMS, used by NASA for its Stages contract to measure cost and schedule progress, has been disapproved by the U.S. Department of Defense since 2020. DCMA has issued several Level II and III CARs for this EVMS, including a Level III CAR related to visibility into cost, schedule, and resource needs for several Boeing contracts, including Stages.
Boeing hat seit 2014 von der NASA bzw. dem US-Kongress Zuschläge in Höhe von 4,2 Milliarden USD für Entwicklung + Bau des Starliner erhalten. Die Zahlen für das EUS werden oben genannt. Zwei Mutmaßungen: es wäre nicht überraschend, wenn die in Aussicht stehenden Regreßforderungen Boeing in den Konkurs treiben würden. Zweitens: es wäre nicht überraschend, wenn die jahrelangen Verzögerungen bei der Rakete, bei den Raumanzügen, beim HLS (also der Mondfähre) und dem Gateway als Zwischenhalt in der Mondumlaufbahn dazu führen werden, daß entweder die NASA oder der Kongreß das ganze Unternehmen Mondfahrt 2.0 abbricht. In Sachen Gateway machte in der vorigen Woche dies die Runde:
Zitat von ars technica, 1. Aug 2024NASA’s Lunar Gateway has a big visiting vehicles problem - "These defects could lead the flight computers to unexpectedly restart."
The Gateway—a small space station that will fly in a halo orbit around the Moon and spend most of its time far from the lunar surface—was initially supposed to launch in 2022. That obviously did not happen, and now, according to a new report from the US Government Accountability Office, the space agency does not expect the launch of the initial elements of the Gateway until at least December 2027. The baseline cost estimate is $5.3 billion.
The report also finds that the Gateway program is running into some pretty serious technical difficulties. One involves a defective network chip that facilitates communication throughout the lunar space station. Its failure could cause myriad problems onboard the Gateway.
"For example, these defects could lead the flight computers to unexpectedly restart," the report states. "If the network is not functioning properly, it could result in loss of control of the Gateway. Program officials are also concerned that they might identify more defects with the communication network, based on the number found already."
Another risk involves something called "stack controllability." This essentially means that because SpaceX's Lunar Starship is so much more massive than the Gateway, when it is docked to the space station, the Gateway's power and propulsion element (PPE) will not be able to maintain a proper orientation of the entire stack.
"Program officials estimate that the mass of the lunar lander Starship is approximately 18 times greater than the value NASA used to develop the PPE’s controllability parameters," the report states. "According to NASA’s system engineering guidance, late requirements and design changes can lead to cost growth and schedule delays."
The report also has some sobering conclusions about the potential utility of the Lunar Gateway for Mars missions. (In the past, NASA officials have spoken about the Gateway as a staging area for spacecraft and propellant for human missions to the surface of Mars.) However, the "stack controllability" issue poses a serious constraint to hosting large Mars transit vehicles. Moreover, the planned 15-year lifetime of the Gateway may not be long enough to sustain Mars missions.
All in all, the report seems to suggest that the Gateway is way behind schedule and is of limited use to lunar and Mars landings. The report suggests the Gateway will be complex to undertake at the very same time NASA is attempting to establish a lunar surface program. But other than that, everything is going great.
Zitat Elon Musk and Undine von Milky Way ✌️🇩🇪 liked your reply The German legacy media are literally *foaming* at the mouth because he *dares* to *do* *that*. No idea why they would do that...
Zitat Ian Miles Cheong@stillgray·1h BREAKING: The Global Alliance for Responsible Media, or GARM, is shutting down after X and Rumble filed a massive antitrust lawsuit against it.
Ulrich Elkmann@UlrichElkm62551 The German legacy media are literally *foaming* at the mouth because he *dares* to *do* *that*. No idea why they would do that... 7:17 PM · Aug 8, 2024
Zitat Ed Lu@astroEdLu·8h A Chinese rocket launched 18 satellites for the G60 constellation and broke up in orbit releasing over 700 debris fragments. Unfortunately this debris over the next few years will be making its way downwards through the orbits of ISS and Starlink. @LeoLabs_Space 12:58 AM · Aug 9, 2024
Zitat LeoLabs@LeoLabs_Space 🚨 We’re actively monitoring and analyzing the breakup event in #LEO involving a Chinese rocket body, CZ-6A. Our radar data indicates this event occurred on 6 August at ~20:10 UTC at ~810 km. It resulted in at least 700 debris fragments and potentially more than 900.
Kleine Anmerkung: die Zeit, die ein Objekt im erdnahen Orbit verbliebt, wird durch den Luftwiderstand (minimal, aber beständig) bestimmt. Für eine Höhe von 200 km beträgt die Verbleibdauer ~30 Stunden; für 250 km 10 Tage; für 250 km 44 Tage; für die ISS in 390-420 km km Entfernung 1,7 Jahren - und bei 800 km sind wir bei 4900 Jahren.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Zitat NASA is contemplating bringing astronauts Barry Wilmore and Suni Williams home from the International Space Station on a SpaceX Crew Dragon and flying the Boeing Starliner back empty. There’s just one problem: Boeing removed the Starliner’s autonomous undocking feature from its software. The aerospace manufacturer wants to push a software update to the spacecraft in orbit, but NASA fears it could do more damage. ... NASA fears that Boeing’s software update could brick one of the two crewed-vehicle docking ports on the ISS. If the space agency decided to autonomously return the Starliner to Earth, it must be absolutely certain that it wouldn’t render the port inoperable.
Wenn ich das richtig verstehe, werden auf der ISS 4 (!) verschiedene Andock/Verbindungssysteme genutzt, davon 3 für die russischen Module. Demnach gäbe es im amerikanischen Segment nur die Möglichkeit, zwei bemannte Kapseln überhaupt anzudocken.
Zitat Common Berthing Mechanism:
Used on ISS (USOS), MPLMs, HTV, SpaceX Dragon 1,[22] Cygnus. The standard CBM has a pass through in the shape of a square with rounded edges and has a width of 1,300 mm (50 in).[4] The smaller hatch that Cygnus uses results in a transfer passage of the same shape but has a width of 940 mm (37 in).[23]
Internatoinal Docking System Standard (IDSS)
Used on the ISS International Docking Adapter, SpaceX Dragon 2, Boeing Starliner and future vehicles. Circular transfer passage diameter is 800 mm (31 in).[28] The International Berthing and Docking Mechanism (IBDM) is an implementation of IDSS to be used on European Space Agency spacecraft. [29] IBDM will also be used on Dream Chaser.[30]
ASA-G/ASP-G
Used by Nauka Science (or Experiment) Airlock, to berth to nauka forward port. The berthing mechanism is a unique hybrid derivative the Russian APAS-89/APAS-95 system as it has 4 petals instead of 3 along with 12 structural hooks and is a combination of an active "probe and drogue" soft-dock mechanism on port and passive target on airlock.
SSPA-GB 1/2 (Hybrid Docking System)
It is a modified passive hybrid version of SSVP-M8000. Used on ISS (Prichal lateral ports for future add-on modules)
Zitat ALEX@ajtourville Looking at the replies, a lot of people don't understand the conundrum with this situation. A) If NASA returns the crew on Starliner – Starliner will be undocked by *current* flight software + crew from the ISS but there's a risk the crew won't make it home B) If NASA returns the crew on Dragon – The crew comes home safely but there's a risk that Starliner will never be able to undock autonomously with *updated* flight software alone, meaning there's a risk to all current and future astronauts going to the ISS with the loss of one of only two docking ports.
Elon Musk@elonmusk Tough situation 4:01 PM · Aug 10, 2024
Zitat NASA is about to make its most important safety decision in nearly a generation. Three of the managers on the Starliner mission had key roles on Columbia's ill-fated final flight.
Three of the managers at the center of the pending decision, Ken Bowersox and Steve Stich from NASA and Boeing's LeRoy Cain, either had key roles in the ill-fated final flight of Space Shuttle Columbia in 2003 or felt the consequences of the accident.
At that time, officials misjudged the risk. Seven astronauts died, and the Space Shuttle Columbia was destroyed as it reentered the atmosphere over Texas. Bowersox, Stich, and Cain weren't the people making the call on the health of Columbia's heat shield in 2003, but they had front-row seats to the consequences.
Bowersox was an astronaut on the International Space Station when NASA lost Columbia. He and his crewmates were waiting to hitch a ride home on the next Space Shuttle mission, which was delayed two-and-a-half years in the wake of the Columbia accident. Instead, Bowersox's crew came back to Earth later that year on a Russian Soyuz capsule. After retiring from the astronaut corps, Bowersox worked at SpaceX and is now the head of NASA's spaceflight operations directorate.
Stich and Cain were NASA flight directors in 2003, and they remain well-respected in human spaceflight circles. Stich is now the manager of NASA's commercial crew program, and Cain is now a Boeing employee and chair of the company's Starliner mission director. For the ongoing Starliner mission, Bowersox, Stich, and Cain are in the decision-making chain.
All three joined NASA in the late 1980s, soon after the Challenger accident. They have seen NASA attempt to reshape its safety culture after both of NASA's fatal Space Shuttle tragedies. After Challenger, NASA's astronaut office had a more central role in safety decisions, and the agency made efforts to listen to dissent from engineers. Still, human flaws are inescapable, and NASA's culture was unable to alleviate them during Columbia's last flight in 2003.
NASA knew launching a Space Shuttle in cold weather reduced the safety margin on its solid rocket boosters, which led to the Challenger accident. And shuttle managers knew foam routinely fell off the external fuel tank. In a near-miss, one of these foam fragments hit a shuttle booster but didn't damage it, just two flights prior to Columbia's STS-107 mission.
"I have wondered if some in management roles today that were here when we lost Challenger and Columbia remember that in both of those tragedies, there were those that were not comfortable proceeding," Milt Heflin, a retired NASA flight director who spent 47 years at the agency, wrote in an email to Ars. "Today, those memories are still around."
"I suspect Stich and Cain are paying attention to the right stuff," Heflin wrote.
The question facing NASA's leadership today? Should the two astronauts return to Earth from the International Space Station in Boeing's Starliner spacecraft, with its history of thruster failures and helium leaks, or should they come home on a SpaceX Dragon capsule?
Under normal conditions, the first option is the choice everyone at NASA would like to make. It would be least disruptive to operations at the space station and would potentially maintain a clearer future for Boeing's Starliner program, which NASA would like to become operational for regular crew rotation flights to the station.
But some people at NASA aren't convinced this is the right call. Engineers still don't fully understand why five of the Starliner spacecraft's thrusters overheated and lost power as the capsule approached the space station for docking in June. Four of these five control jets are now back in action with near-normal performance, but managers would like to be sure the same thrusters—and maybe more—won't fail again as Starliner departs the station and heads for reentry.
Zitat August 12, 2024 First Human Spaceflight to Fly Over Earth’s Polar Regions
In the past four years, SpaceX has launched thirteen human spaceflight missions, safely flying 50 crewmembers to and from Earth’s orbit and creating new opportunities for humanity to live, work, and explore what is possible in space. Dragon’s 46 missions overall to orbit have delivered critical supplies, scientific research, and astronauts to the International Space Station, while also opening the door for commercial astronauts to explore Earth’s orbit.
As early as this year, Falcon 9 will launch Dragon’s sixth commercial astronaut mission, Fram2, which will be the first human spaceflight mission to explore Earth from a polar orbit and fly over the Earth’s polar regions for the first time. Named in honor of the ship that helped explorers first reach Earth’s Arctic and Antarctic regions, Fram2 will be commanded by Chun Wang, an entrepreneur and adventurer from Malta. Wang aims to use the mission to highlight the crew’s explorational spirit, bring a sense of wonder and curiosity to the larger public, and highlight how technology can help push the boundaries of exploration of Earth and through the mission’s research.
Joining Wang on the mission is a crew of international adventurers: Norway’s Jannicke Mikkelsen, vehicle commander; Australia’s Eric Philips, vehicle pilot; and Germany’s Rabea Rogge, mission specialist. This will be the first spaceflight for each of the crewmembers.
Throughout the 3-to-5-day mission, the crew plans to observe Earth’s polar regions through Dragon’s cupola at an altitude of 425 – 450 km, leveraging insight from space physicists and citizen scientists to study unusual light emissions resembling auroras. The crew will study green fragments and mauve ribbons of continuous emissions comparable to the phenomenon known as STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), which has been measured at an altitude of approximately 400 - 500 km above Earth’s atmosphere. The crew will also work with SpaceX to conduct a variety of research to better understand the effects of spaceflight on the human body, which includes capturing the first human x-ray images in space, Just-in-Time training tools, and studying the effects of spaceflight on behavioral health, all of which will help in the development of tools needed to prepare humanity for future long-duration spaceflight.
Falcon 9 will launch Fram2 to a polar orbit from Florida no earlier than late 2024.
Der Name der Mission bezieht sich natürlich auf das Schiff von Fritjof Nansen, mit dem er seine Drift im Packeis um den Nordpol in den Jahren 1893 bis 1896 absolviert hat. Die "Fram" war auch das Schiff, das Roald Amundsen bei seiner Expedition zum Südpol 1910-12 benutzt hat. Und anders als die "Calypso" ist sie nicht verloren- oder verschüttgegangen, sondern seit 1935 in einem eigens gebauten Museum in der nähe von Oslo ausgestellt.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Zitat NASA Space Operations@NASASpaceOps Update: Teams working on the return plan for @NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test are making progress analyzing testing data as we evaluate the Starliner return options. We now are planning for decisional meetings no earlier than next week to give the time we need to make the best decision possible for the safety of our crew, which is our top priority. The agency will host a media update on Wednesday, Aug. 14, to provide the latest status on the ongoing work. More to come on timing. -Ken Bowersox, Associate Administrator for Space Ops 11:39 PM · Aug 12, 2024
Zitat Wall Street Silver@WallStreetSilv In 2014 NASA awarded contracts to two companies to build spacecraft capable of bringing astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.
SpaceX received $2.6 billion, launched first mission in 2020 and has done 13 crew missions with 49 astronauts so far.
Boeing received $4.2 billion, first mission 2024 and stranded at the space station with leaks. Likely a total loss and the astronauts will be need to be rescued by SpaceX. Even worse, the software on Starliner cannot handle an automated undocking, possibly resulting in Starliner being permanently blocking one of two ports needed for other capsules to arrive. 8:27 AM · Aug 12, 2024
Zitat Eric Berger@SciGuySpace I'm not sure what NASA officials will say at today's Starliner news conference. No final decisions will be made until this weekend, at least. However, based on my latest intel I now think it significantly more likely Butch and Suni return to Earth on Crew Dragon than Starliner. 2:38 PM · Aug 14, 2024
Keith Mansfield📚🚀✨@KeithMansfield·4h If that happens, is it effectively the end of #Starliner? And a slow shift to crew rating #Dreamchaser over the next few years? Feel it's hard to see how Boeing would come back from such a public humiliation.
Eric Berger@SciGuySpace·4h I would be very surprised if we ever see a Crew version of Dream Chaser ever take flight.
Zitat Eric Berger@SciGuySpace At the top of today's Starliner press call NASA's Ken Bowersox said the agency doesn't have any big announcements today. No surprise, as they're still working the issue. However, see below for what I'm hearing.
The decision keeps getting pushed out. Ken Bowersox says a Flight Readiness Review—this is a high-level meeting of senior officials to make a final decision—will now not occur until the end of next week or the week of August 26.
NASA's chief astronaut, Joe Acaba, says Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams launched to the ISS prepared for all contingencies. Says a potential eight-month increment on the station is will within the safety range for long-duration stays. 7:13 PM · Aug 14, 2024
Zehn volle Wochen ist der Starliner nun gestrandet - und seit geschlagenen 8 davon hören wir von Boeing nur Geblubber und Vertagung.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Kleines Seitenstück zum Ausfall der RCS-Thruster. Bei der zweiten PK im Juli hieß es ja von Seiten von Boeing, daß es beim Ausfall zu "ungewöhnlich hohen Hitzemessungen" in den Zuleitungen gekommen sei, die zum Ausfall geführt hätten. Und daß die Testreihen in White Sands dazu dienen sollten, solche Überhitzungen zu replizieren, um zum einen festzusellen, wie sie entstehen und zum anderen, welche weiteren Schäden das im System anrichtet.
Zitat Jordan Noone 🇺🇸@theJordanNoone The vehicle was designed for the wrong duty cycle resulting in incorrect thermal analysis. It’s fairly unprecented to have such a critical component on a already crewed flight vehicle, that has completely incorrect analysis, resulting in significant thermal design violations. The temperature bounds for these seals is very known. What is unknown is how much those bounds can be violated further if at all, on a vehicle in orbit where the current state and degradation can’t be inspected, with significant temperature violations prior in the mission, while still guaranteeing sufficient performance/reliability to carry crew. 7:16 PM · Aug 13, 2024
Jordan Noone 🇺🇸@theJordanNoone Additional comments on how Boeing's Starliner got in this predicament. Clearly a breakdown between Boeing in-house and external engineering teams where the thrusters were provided the wrong design criteria. The thrusters, and their troublesome valve seals, were tested and designed"correctly", but for the wrong conditions. Most likely traces back to the reported breakdown in communication between Boeing and their component vendors. Boeing didn't want to pay vendors for design changes. Curious if the root is someone at Boeing accidentally not relaying vehicle updates to vendors, or if it was a conscious decision to avoid paying for change requests. 8:08 PM · Aug 13, 2024
Kleine Erinnerung daran, daß die 28 Lagekontrolldüsen ("Remote Control System") an Bord des Starliner nicht von Boeing gefertigt worden sind, sondern von der Firma L3Harris.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Während der ersten 5 Monate des Jahres hat Roskosmos insgesamt 8 Starts absolviert. Seitdem herrschte Funkstille. Bis heute.
Zitat The unpiloted Roscosmos Progress 89 spacecraft is headed for the International Space Station following a launch at 11:20 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Aug. 14 (8:20 a.m. Baikonur time, Thursday, Aug. 15), on a Soyuz rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.
After a two-day in-orbit journey to the station, the spacecraft will automatically dock to the aft port of the orbiting laboratory’s Zvezda Service module at 1:56 a.m., Saturday, Aug. 17.
Zum ersten Mal in 10 Wochen geht ein konkreter Termin für das Abdocken herum.
Zitat Eric Berger@SciGuySpace NASA’s tentative date for Starliner’s undocking from the International Space Station is September 6, whether the spacecraft is crewed or not. Final decision on Butch and Suni likely to be made about 10 days from now. Both options being worked still. 4:34 PM · Aug 15, 2024
Clarification! Targeted date for a crewed undock is actually September 2. Uncrewed undock target is September 6. 5:19 PM · Aug 15, 2024
Zitat Eric Berger@SciGuySpace NASA has been extremely quiet on the status of the Europa Clipper spacecraft and its transistor issue. Two sources told me they now think it is more likely than not that the mission makes its October 2024 launch window. 5:27 PM · Aug 15, 2024
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Erfolgte Weltraumstarts in den letzten 40 Stunden:
Do., 15. August 2024 (Zeiten in MESZ): Transporter Progress MS-28 zur ISS, Sojus, Baikonur, 05:20. (9. russischer Start in diesem Jahr und der erste seit dem 30. Mai.) Worldview 3 & 4 für Maxar Technologies, Falcon 9, Cape Canaveral, 15:00.
Fr., 16. August: EOS-08, SSLV, Satish Dhawan, Indien. 05:47. Yaogan 41-1 A bis C, Xichang, China. 09:35. Transporter-11, Falcon 9, Vandenberg AFB. 20:56. (39 Satelliten, zumeist Cubesats, zumeist aus den USA, aber auch aus Argentinien, Spanien & Polen.)
Die folgenden beiden Starlink-Starts stehen für den kommenden Dienstag & Mittwoch an. Zumindest der Starttakt läuft wieder wie gewohnt rund.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Kurz & knackig zusammengefaßt. Die Bilanz aus 10 Jahren. Und archetypisch für das "21. Jahrhundert."
Zitat Wall Street Silver@WallStreetSilv The Boeing Starliner is docked at the Space Station, but the hardware and software has so many problems that NASA is hesitant to risk putting astronauts back inside to return to Earth.
NASA has no choice at this point but to have SpaceX Dragon bring back the two stranded astronauts in Feb 2025. So many risks have been identified in the Boeing Starliner that if an astronaut died returning on it, hundreds of people at Boeing and NASA would be fired.
The only safe decision at this point is to have the two astronauts wait for a SpaceX Dragon capsule, that has extra space, to bring them home. That date has been revealed as Feb 2025.
Boeing is updating the software now, on the Starliner docked at the Space Station, to allow for unmanned undocking and return to Earth. For some reason, this software option was removed for this manned mission. If Boeing can update the software, then Starliner will undock and attempt to return to Earth without risking any astronauts.
The damage to Boeing and NASA reputations would be a disaster if any astronauts attempted it and perished in the process. Last edited 2:15 AM · Aug 20, 2024
Zitat von Ulrich Elkmann im Beitrag #419Nachtrag zum Thema "da ist der Wurm drin":
Heute Blue Origin/New Glenn.
Zitat von August 21, 2024Bezos’ Blue Origin Suffers Fiery Setback Building New Rocket
Blue Origin LLC sustained failures in recent weeks of testing including a factory mishap that damaged a portion of a future New Glenn rocket, the long-awaited centerpiece of the Jeff Bezos-backed startup’s push to take on SpaceX.
The upper portion of one rocket crumpled into itself, in part due to worker error, while it was being moved to a storage hangar, according to people familiar with the situation. In a separate incident, another upper rocket portion failed during stress testing and exploded, the people said. Repairs are underway, another person said, noting there were no injuries during either episode.
"Forse che sì, forse che no" (frei nach Gabriele D'Annunzio, 1910):
Zitat NASA’s decision on whether to return Starliner to Earth with astronauts aboard is expected no earlier than Saturday, Aug. 24 at the conclusion of an agency-level review chaired by Ken Bowersox, the associate administrator of NASA’s Space Operations Mission Directorate. The agency flight readiness review is where any formal dissents are presented and reconciled. Other agency leaders who routinely participate in launch and return readiness reviews for crewed missions include NASA’s administrator, deputy administrator, associate administrator, various agency center directors, the Flight Operations Directorate, and agency technical authorities.
NASA will host a televised news conference following the review’s conclusion to discuss the agency’s decision and next steps. More information on the news conference will be shared once confirmed. After the agency-level decision, program and flight control teams will continue preparing for Starliner’s return, including training sessions and other actions as appropriate.
NB. Die Titelnennung erfolgt nicht ganz zufällig. D'Annunzios Roman beschreibt auch zwei Wettflüge im gerade neu erfundenen Aeroplan, von denen einer tödlich endet.
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
Zitat SpaceX@SpaceX Targeting Tuesday, August 27 for launch of Polaris Dawn, the first of the @PolarisProgram’s three human spaceflight missions designed to advance the future of spaceflight.
The new date allows additional time for teams to complete preflight checkouts ahead of next week’s launch 1:29 AM · Aug 22, 2024
Zitat Senior NASA leaders, including the agency's administrator Bill Nelson, will meet Saturday in Houston to decide whether Boeing's Starliner spacecraft is safe enough to ferry astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth from the International Space Station.
The Flight Readiness Review (FRR) is expected to conclude with NASA's most consequential safety decision in nearly a generation. One option is to clear the Starliner spacecraft to undock from the space station in early September with Wilmore and Williams onboard, as their flight plan initially laid out, or to bring the capsule home without its crew. ... If Boeing's capsule cannot return to Earth with its two astronauts, NASA may not certify Starliner for operational crew missions without an additional test flight. In that case, Boeing probably wouldn't be able to complete all six of its planned operational crew missions under a $4.2 billion NASA contract before the International Space Station is due for retirement in 2030.
The Flight Readiness Review at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston will begin Saturday morning. Ken Bowersox, a former astronaut and head of NASA's Space Operations Mission Directorate, will chair the meeting. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will participate, too. If there's no unanimous agreement around the table at the FRR, a final decision on what to do could be elevated above Bowersox to NASA's associate administrator, Jim Free or to Nelson.
"The agency flight readiness review is where any formal dissents are presented and reconciled," NASA said in a statement Thursday. "Other agency leaders who routinely participate in launch and return readiness reviews for crewed missions include NASA’s administrator, deputy administrator, associate administrator, various agency center directors, the Flight Operations Directorate, and agency technical authorities."
NASA has scheduled a press conference for no earlier than 1 pm ET (17:00 UTC) Saturday to announce the agency's decision and next steps, the agency said.
Und ansonsten: dasselbe faktenfreie Würmer-aus-der-Nase-Ziehen, das wir seit nunmehr 10 Wochen mitmachen:
Zitat There's one new piece of information that engineers will brief to the Program Control Board on Friday:
"Engineering teams have been working to evaluate a new model that represents the thruster mechanics and is designed to more accurately predict performance during the return phase of flight," NASA said. "This data could help teams better understand system redundancy from undock to service module separation. Ongoing efforts to complete the new modeling, characterize spacecraft performance data, refine integrated risk assessments, and determine community recommendations will fold into the agency-level review."
"Les hommes seront toujours fous; et ceux qui croient les guérir sont les plus fous de la bande." - Voltaire
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